China Economics Update People's Bank signals major shift With a statement comprising a single sentence on its website, the People’s Bank of China today signalled a major policy shift. Incoming economic data have been weak and the global outlook is worsening... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) The latest fiscal data suggest that Ireland remains on track to meet its budget deficit target for this year. But the near-term outlook for the public finances in Southern Europe is more downbeat. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth prospects worsen as euro-zone break-up nears David Cameron’s decision to pull away from Europe has called into question the UK’s entire future in the European Union. But when it comes to the UK’s near-term growth prospects, the debate over... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the UAE's stimulus Following similar moves in other Gulf countries, the UAE announced an increase of up to 100% in the pay of some public sector workers, as well as the introduction of a $2.7 billion fund to help low... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's central bank to cut further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.25% today in a bid to lift confidence and activity following recent floods. The economy is almost certain to contract in Q4 and weak... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2011) Canada's better than estimated third-quarter GDP, which grew by 3.5% annualised, was due to one-time stronger external trade figures. Final domestic demand, however, grew at a slower pace than we had... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts - the fall-out from an EMU break-up We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of a change to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are four main... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industrial production up, but no momentum Disruption to Japanese industrial production from the floods in Thailand appears to be diminishing, boosting output. Beyond this, there is little momentum and even this is likely to wane as emerging... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: less vulnerable, but not immune Polish growth surprised on the upside in Q3, reinforcing the view that the economy is relatively well placed to weather the storm brewing in the euro-zone. But while Poland is less vulnerable to a... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov./Oct.) The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian economy slows, but worse is yet to come GDP figures released today confirm that India’s economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year, even before the latest drop in business surveys and exports. With tight monetary policy... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2011 The dominant themes of this Statement come not from the Chancellor but from the OBR. It now paints a pretty gloomy picture of the immediate economic outlook. Even so, we think its forecasts are not... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The jump in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month high of 56.0 in November, from 40.9 in October, is an encouraging sign given the growing concerns in the euro-zone. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) House prices were still falling in the third quarter and we don’t think that they’ve stabilised in this quarter either. Even when prices do reach their trough, which could be next year, a continued... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack European property market is running out of bright spots Led by Poland and Russia, commercial property markets in CEE have been a relatively bright spot for investment in Europe. Yet, even here, growth in quarterly investment volumes has begun to slow. And... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
