China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation may have fallen a percentage point or more in November. It will be a while before the impact of policy stimulus is felt, with the result that China faces a period of below... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP does nothing to alter our view that the region is on the brink of another deep recession. 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Mergers and Acquisitions (Q3) By volume, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity involving UK firms in Q3 dropped to levels last seen at the time of the credit crunch and deep recession in late 2008 and early 2009. These data... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) This month’s fall in the Halifax house price index was hardly a surprise given other recent, downbeat economic news. And with the labour market weakening rapidly and the economy on the brink of... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The future still looks bright for US Treasuries The sharp drop in the US unemployment rate reported on Friday barely ruffled Treasuries. A few more months of such rosy news on the labour market would probably elicit a less sanguine response in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Slowing growth in Chile bolsters the case for rate cuts Recent indicators suggest that the pace of growth in Chile has continued to slow in Q4 as external demand weakens. There is probably now a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in December but, either way... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Bleak economic outlook to weigh down on activity Buyer demand improved on a number of measures this month. However, with the chance of a new recession in the UK mounting by the day, we do not expect activity levels to improve significantly next year... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's central bank risks losing its credibility The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) is coming under pressure from the government to cut interest rates amid signs of slowing economic growth. However, with inflation at just under 20% y/y in November... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch More QE to come after current purchases completed The MPC has sent some strong signals that further quantitative easing (QE) is likely before long. However, the £75bn of asset purchases voted for in October have not been completed yet. And the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Nov) November’s PMI data show that, after slowing in the third quarter, growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector is gathering momentum again. However, higher purchase and staff costs mean that price... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Nov) The sharp fall in the PMI’s export component shows the vulnerability of UAE’s non-oil economy to global conditions. 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Putin’s popularity trigger reform? The blow to United Russia in the parliamentary elections means that Putin’s absolute control over Russian politics has weakened. The question now is whether this can act as a trigger for reform as Mr... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Nov.) The modest improvement in the UK CIPS/Markit report on services in November does not alter the big picture that the overall economy is verging on recession. 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian currencies to remain undervalued Most Asian currencies looked weak even before the falls of the past few months. We expect them to fall further over the coming year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies. And even when global risk... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government relying on depleted fiscal firepower The Japanese government has announced a fourth fiscal budget in a sign it remains reliant on its fiscal firepower to support the economy. But there are limits to how much it can do and it is already... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
