Canada Economics Weekly More regional evidence on house prices New regional house price data show that many metropolitan areas have seen existing house prices rise sharply from already elevated levels this year. We think these facts count towards dispelling the... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Philippines continue to disappoint? The main cause of its weak performance has been low investment. Demographic factors should push the savings rate higher over the next decade, which should in turn support stronger investment and... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slow deleveraging continues The economy's slow deleveraging continued in the third quarter, with total debt falling to a four-year low of 340% of GDP down from a peak of 373% in the first quarter of 2009. 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s silver bullet turns out to be a blank At their summit last week, euro-zone leaders agreed on the basics of a new “fiscal compact” which should help to reduce the risks that another debt crisis such as that seen over the last two years is... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas? The high street has been emitting an unrelenting flow of gloomy news in recent weeks. We are reluctant to conclude just yet that Christmas trading will be a total write-off. Nevertheless, a splurge... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The decline in the trade deficit in October is unlikely to be sustained, not least as US exports can’t continue to grow at current rates when global demand is weakening. 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's international trade data suggest that fourth-quarter exports might be fizzling out faster than anticipated, despite the modest improvements in US economic indicators. The good news is that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC sidelined as global slowdown offsets fears over Iran The regular OPEC meeting on 14th December will be overshadowed by the crisis in the euro-zone and tensions with Iran. Our oil price forecasts give more weight to the fall-out from a further escalation... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What will a break-up mean for euro-zone commercial property? The economic and financial market dislocations that will arise from a break-up of the euro-zone will have severe, negative consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Indeed, we think that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation plummets, activity slows November’s drop in inflation was even sharper than expected and the data on investment and industrial output were weak too. The government is leaving its boilerplate language on policy unchanged... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Nov.) Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising risk of a triple dip The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates a marked deterioration in conditions in Q4, and is consistent with a contraction in both the Q4 Tankan survey and GDP. The survey suggests the... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would a crisis in Europe hit Latin American banks? 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea and New Zealand central banks too sanguine The government in Vietnam has moved to restructure some of the country’s banks. This comes after a surge in lending in recent years, which has contributed to a rise in bad debt. The non-performing... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
