China Economics Update Policymakers embrace pro-growth stance It takes some reading between the lines in today’s statement on policy priorities for 2012 to find evidence that the policy setting has changed. Nonetheless, the shift is real. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s euro-zone industrial production data add to evidence that the wider economy may have contracted pretty sharply in Q4. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q3) Financial and business services (FBS) sector employment rose strongly in Q3, which will have supported Central London office rental values. But a raft of banking job cuts have been announced since Q3... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: next in the region to commence rate cuts? Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates at 5.25% last night. With the euro-zone debt crisis set to escalate in 2012, the CBC could be the next central bank in Latin America to commence rate... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) Unemployment is still rising – and would be increasing far more rapidly were it not for large numbers of workers becoming self-employed. We expect unemployment to rise much further as the economy... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat for now The Fed put off making changes to its communications strategy and potentially announcing a third round of quantitative easing until the new year. 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields fall further despite growing fiscal fears UK gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month, despite growing fiscal fears and the limited boost to gilt prices provided so far by the Monetary Policy Committee’s further round of asset... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB doing more than we think? Recent changes to the ECB’s bank lending operations and the news that national central banks may lend to the IMF have raised hopes that support for the region’s most troubled economies is being... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s underlying inflation still weak On the face of it at least, the latest rise in inflation in Central Europe is deeply worrying, not least since it has come against a backdrop of slowing growth. But a closer look at the data reveals... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: Fiesta or siesta? The looming downturn in the US next year means that Mexican growth will slow in the run-up to July’s presidential elections. The task of raising economic performance therefore looks set to dominate... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The disappointing increase in retail sales in November suggests that the start of the holiday shopping season was not half as strong as retailers’ spectacular Black Friday sales reports suggested... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What should we expect from QE2? This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Rapid drop in inflation to allow more monetary stimulus Inflation is now on a downward trajectory almost everywhere as global commodity prices drop back and demand conditions weaken. Disinflation will gather pace in the first half of 2012 and inflation in... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q3) FSA data released this morning suggest that credit conditions are acting as a brake on housing activity and therefore are probably putting downwards pressure on house prices. Consistent with that, the... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
