US Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply in 2012 We expect the rapid run up in CPI inflation this year to be completely reversed next year, although the core inflation rate will fall more modestly. 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling exports point to GDP contraction in Q4 The weakening global economy and the strong yen are weighing heavily on Japanese exports and will probably mean GDP contracts in Q4. The downgrade by a domestic credit rating agency highlights the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC summit reveals lack of unity on economic policy Given the political turmoil in the Arab world and growing concerns of a conflict with Iran, it is unsurprising that politics took centre stage at the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) 32nd Summit this... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Weak start to 2012 After a run of bad data, many are now looking at prospects for 2012 with a sense of foreboding. GDP growth in Q4 may have dropped below 7% q/q in annualised terms. Monetary conditions have loosened a... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What are empty homes really telling us about the housing market? There has been a marked reduction in the number of empty homes since the housing market crash first hit, driven by a decline in the number of long-term empties. To our minds, that suggests that the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay better placed to weather slowdown than Argentina Uruguay and Argentina both delivered impressive growth in Q3. Nevertheless, while they will both inevitably suffer over the coming quarters as the world economy slows, the key difference is that... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q3) Official statistics suggest that sentiment towards commercial property among institutional investors held up fairly well in the third quarter. But more timely monthly figures suggest that net... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) & Public finances (Nov.) The minutes of December’s MPC meeting reiterated the Committee’s view that there is little point in trying to fine-tune policy, but nonetheless suggested that the door remains open to more... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q3) Italy’s Q3 GDP figures add to evidence that the economy has probably already re-entered recession, despite the fact that the fiscal squeeze there has barely started. With the economy set to contract... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policy set to ease across the region in 2012 Growth concerns will increasingly dominate Latin American policymakers’ agendas as we move into 2012. With many of the world’s advanced economies headed towards recession, and China’s economy... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Nov) The growth rate of all the monetary aggregates has remained steady recently, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Housing starts rose strongly in November, building on the gains seen since the start of the year. By historical standards, homebuilding activity is still very depressed, but at least it appears to be... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) We expect the official 'core' inflation rate, which was unchanged at 2.1% in November, to stay well within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3% in the coming months. As the economy slows and... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Two painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011 This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Fading momentum points to slower growth Activity and output rebounded in October after the weak performance of monthly indicators at the end of the third quarter. Sentiment and early indicators for November, however, show a turn for the... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
