Japan Economics Update Global weakness prompts downgrade of GDP forecast Worse than expected results from the Tankan survey and deteriorating global conditions have prompted us to revise down our Japan GDP forecasts for 2012 and beyond. We continue to expect a full-year... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs highlight downside risks to metals prices The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone remained well below 50 in December. Despite the prospect of further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) China’s flash PMI for December rebounded, but it remains below 50. What’s more, finished goods inventories are rising and some of the recent activity seems to have been aimed at clearing backlogs... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns to dominate in first half of 2012 The past month has brought yet more evidence that Brazil’s economy has come rapidly off the boil. Indeed, it seems likely that the country may now, in technical terms at least, be in recession. For... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to a euro-zone banking crisis? The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The official retail sales figures confirmed that November was a bad month for retailers and will raise concerns that spending will be soft over the festive period. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Emp. (Q3) & HICP Inflation (Nov.) December’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI did nothing to alter our view that the region is heading into a fairly deep recession, regardless of how the debt crisis develops. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Derivatives pricing highlights downside risks to capital values Given the sharp growth in trading activity in the property futures market, conceptually its pricing data perhaps give a better guide than swaps to the near-term prospects for physical property capital... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global slowdown not the only storm brewing for 2012 As we head into 2012, there still appears to be a sense of misplaced confidence regarding Canada's economic fundamentals and growth prospects. With the US economy set to slow again and the euro zone... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Our first thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s ministerial reshuffle Yesterday’s ministerial reshuffle in Saudi Arabia reflects the fact that previous administrations have fallen well short of the targets for growth and employment set out in the recent National... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) The drop-back in manufacturing volumes, which fell 0.9% m/m in October, suggest that the risk to our monthly GDP growth assumption of 0.1% now lie to the downside. In addition, the decline raises some... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC’s quota hike all but irrelevant to oil price outlook OPEC’s decision today to raise the official target for the cartel’s oil output to close to the current level of production will make no real difference on the ground, especially as it reportedly did... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Global slowdown will expose failure to boost consumption China’s 2008 stimulus was intended to buy time while the economy made the transition to sustainable, consumer-led growth. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Nov.) The new annual regional data suggest that the widely-held view that London’s economy has fared better than other regions of the UK over the last couple of years is unfounded. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
