Japan Economics Focus Will Japan be the next domino to fall? Japan’s staggering level of public debt makes Greek and Italian liabilities look like pocket change. Its financial liabilities over the next few years are many multiples of its euro-zone peers and its... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) Despite rising slightly in December, the German ZEW index points to a risk of recession in the coming months. 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s inflation figures provided further hope that inflation has now passed its peak and could soon fall pretty sharply. Give it a year, and the prospect of deflation could be the prime concern... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Nov.) The latest RICS Housing Market Survey reported a slight moderation in the pace of house price falls in November. Yet the stock of unsold properties neared a threeyear high this month, suggesting that... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Spanish retail yields especially vulnerable to a correction? In recent years, the spread between Spanish retail and office yields has switched from positive to negative. This is typical in other countries and also squares with the long-run outperformance by... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update NPLs are likely to rise sharply in Vietnam The government in Vietnam has moved to restructure some of the country’s banks. This comes after a surge in lending in recent years, which has contributed to a rise in bad debt. The non-performing... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily EU Summit provides no relief for Italian government bonds 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will "splendid isolation" affect the UK? David Cameron’s decision to pull away from Europe has called into question the UK’s entire future in the European Union. But when it comes to the UK’s near-term growth prospects, the debate over... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: banking squeeze intensifies amidst political unrest The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has cut the amount of funds it provides via its overnight repo auctions to the lowest level in almost two months in an attempt to shore up the ruble against a backdrop... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Nov.) China’s latest trade data provide some room for optimism despite the downbeat headline figures. Restocking may explain most of the pick-up in commodity imports, but non-commodity imports increased too... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Chinese commodity imports are not set to last The volume of China’s commodity imports rose markedly in November, bolstered by weaker prices spurring restocking, probably instead of any upturn in final demand. Indeed, recent steps by the Chinese... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai not yet out of the woods Despite growing concerns, we think that Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs) should be able to service the $3.8 billion in bonds that mature next year. Instead, the more pressing issue is the on... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The recovery in consumer confidence came to a halt in October and started to unwind in November. Consumers remain particularly concerned about employment prospects, but are also increasingly worried... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish GDP: export boost masks weaker domestic demand Today’s Q3 GDP data surprised on the upside but, as we expected, domestic demand slowed much more sharply than the headline GDP growth rate. The key point though, is that today’s data do not yet... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will non-bank lending really help the property market? Even if we are right and non-bank financial institutions, e.g. insurance companies and pension funds, start to lend more meaningfully to commercial property this can only ever be a partial and/or... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong yen undermining efforts to control inflation The Japanese economy is sinking back into deflation. Domestically-generated inflationary pressures are non-existent, while the appreciation of the yen accentuates the effects of falling global... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
