US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Income/ Spending (Nov.) November's personal spending and durable goods data releases were a little disappointing and together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will now come in at slightly below 2.5% annualised, whereas... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Nov.)11 There was little in today’s lending data to suggest that mortgage approvals are likely to break out of their recent narrow range any time soon. And with both the economy and the wholesale mortgage... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Nov.) There was little in today’s lending data to suggest that mortgage approvals are likely to break out of their recent narrow range any time soon. And with both the economy and the wholesale mortgage... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The year of the double-dip There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch year for the euro-zone With the euro-zone debt crisis ending the year much deeper and broader than it started it, it seems unlikely that the next 12 months will see a repeat of the (just about) “muddling through” process... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look back at 2011 In this Weekly we take a look back at 2011. The devastating earthquake and tsunami in March was undoubtedly the most significant event of the year. Principally a human tragedy, the disaster also had... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Activity continues to slow The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that economic growth has continued to slow. Our initial estimate is that the economy expanded less than 7% q/q in annualised terms in Q4. 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does 2012 hold in store? Consumers finally appear to have opened their wallets in the last few days. However, the big picture is that the economy has ended the year on a pretty weak note. The consensus expects an expansion in... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More rollercoaster than super-cycle Commodity prices are ending 2011 with a whimper. Over the year as a whole the only major commodities to show significant increases are Brent crude and gold. Most components of the closely-watched S&P... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Confidence important during global slowdown Given the worsening global economic outlook and its negative implications for the export sector, confidence among domestic households and businesses will be critical to Canada's overall economic... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Finding a floor The housing market is on the verge of finding a floor. After sliding for five years, in 2012 house prices may finally stop falling. But this doesn’t mean that significant and sustained rises are on... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) The 14% downward revision to the number of existing home sales since 2007 confirms that the housing crash has been deeper than originally thought. But this is old news. Much more important is that the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong growth to continue in Sri Lanka Sri Lanka’s GDP grew strongly in the third quarter of 2011, following a rapid expansion in all of the main sectors of the economy. Rapid growth reduces the immediate urgency for interest rate cuts... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Have we underestimated Germany? The recent rise in some of the German business surveys has prompted optimistic media reports about Germany saving the euro-zone, acting as Santa, being a twinkling Christmas star in the euro-zone... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October's surprising retail sales, which grew by 1.0%m/m, suggest that household spending began this quarter on a strong footing. For three months in a row now retail volumes have increased strongly... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
