Europe Economics Weekly Spring bond redemptions may prove pivotal A new year may have begun, but it has not provided the euro-zone with a fresh start. The latest economic data confirm that the economy remains in a precarious position and the euro has continued to... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery getting back on track? The start of the new year has brought the good news that the UK might just about have managed to avoid falling back into recession at the end of 2011. However, we think that it would be premature to... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The bigger than expected 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December (consensus forecast was 155,000) alongside the decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.5%, from 8.7%... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's employment gain of 17,500 jobs, following a slightly larger loss in the month before, was softer than we had expected and was not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from nudging higher... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil meets inflation target by the skin of its teeth Perhaps a little against the odds, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) just about met its inflation target last year as headline inflation slowed to 6.5% in December. Although it may be sticky, inflation... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemployment & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s fall in the EC survey of euro-zone economic sentiment, together with November’s drop in retail sales and the still high rate of unemployment, confirms that the euro-zone economy is in a... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Regional steel prices confirm signs of diverging demand The recent divergence of steel prices in the US and Europe supports other evidence showing the relative strength of the US economy, such as the manufacturing PMIs, and will probably continue. However... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) Today’s data from Halifax show that house prices fell in four of the final five months of 2011. With the economy set to re-enter recession and the recent rise in unemployment having much further to... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue to resist bigger bond purchases After two consecutive cuts in interest rates, the European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to hold fire at its first policy meeting of 2012 on January 12th. And while further interest rate cuts are still... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Another difficult year lies ahead The housing market continues to look fragile. Against the backdrop of rising unemployment and a new recession, we do not expect activity levels to improve next year. As a result, we think further... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation may have stabilised in December, partly due to seasonal factors. But with spare capacity rising, further significant falls are likely after Chinese New Year. 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economic gloom lifts a bit The economic recovery appears to have regained some momentum at the very end of last year, with the business surveys improving in December. But the outlook for this year still looks bleak. 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update "Tail risks" to oil prices still skewed to the downside The two greatest “tail risks” to oil prices this year are an escalation of tensions between Iran and the West (on the upside) and a worsening of the crisis in the euro-zone (on the downside). In... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry remains under the cosh While Brazilian industry finally returned to growth in November, we doubt that the increase will mark the beginning of a sustained pick-up in industrial activity. Indeed, the relatively weak outlook... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
