UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The tone of the latest RICS commercial property survey was very downbeat and supports our view that rental values will decline this year. For now, the consensus forecast is that rents will increase... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE likely next month The MPC’s decision to leave policy unchanged today was as expected, given that the last of the £75bn of asset purchases decided upon in October is still being completed. However, next month should see... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update December pick-up in activity is unlikely to last Recent survey evidence, including today’s Economy Watchers’ Survey, has indicated a pick-up in activity in December. However, the evidence also suggests that this is unlikely to continue as firms... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s euro-zone industrial production data provided further evidence that the economy as a whole may have fallen back into recession in Q4. 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Seasonal factors linked to Chinese New Year slowed inflation’s decline in December. The payback will come once the festival has passed when the headline rate is likely to register another significant... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) Today’s figures suggested that the industrial sector is heading straight back into recession and will fuel concerns that the overall economy stopped growing in the fourth quarter. 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s really behind the rewidening of the Brent-WTI spread? Most analysts attribute the renewed increase in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and WTI over the last few days primarily to changes in the composition of the two major commodity... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the euro? The euro fell below $1.27 against the dollar again on Wednesday – close to its lowest level since the autumn of 2010. We do not think its slide is over. Both the relative prospects for monetary policy... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Downside risks dominate the 2012 outlook House prices remain overvalued on most measures. This suggests that there is ample scope for tighter mortgage credit conditions and rising unemployment to push average house prices lower during 2012... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Clash between Fed and Congress to limit action on housing Policymakers just can’t decide what to do with housing. While the Fed thinks that government funds should be used to support housing, Congress appears to believe that housing should be used to support... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran crisis could keep most Gulf markets subdued in 2012 At first glance, the Gulf’s lack of trade links with Iran means that international sanctions will have little impact on most of the oil-rich region’s economies. Indeed, Iran’s threat to block the... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice prices to fall another 20% in 2012 The acceleration of the rice purchase scheme by the Thai government and setting of minimum export prices by the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) have led many analysts to argue that the price of... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Divergences widen Some of the euro-zone’s survey indicators have ticked up in the past month. However, they almost unanimously warn of a renewed recession in the region, with the composite PMI, for example, pointing to... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
