Europe Economics Update Debt deal will not end Greece’s problems Media reports suggest that Greece may be on the brink of agreeing a debt restructuring deal with private sector creditors. But while this might reduce the chance of a near-term disorderly default... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary plays chicken with the markets This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Emerging Europe Watch. This will summarise the major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed prepares to step into brave new world The Fed has already announced that it will be making some major changes to its monetary policy framework at the two-day FOMC meeting that concludes next Wednesday (25th January). Those changes will... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Dec) The strong rebound in manufacturing output at the end of last year is encouraging, as is the further decline in producer price inflation. 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Oil Minister’s comments point to higher spending in 2012 Comments earlier this week from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi indicating that the government is comfortable with a crude oil price of $100pb (up from $70-80 previously) suggests that public... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) On balance, there was more to worry about than to cheer in the latest labour market data. While there were perhaps some signs that the deterioration in the labour market is beginning to ease, we... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s request from the IMF will not be enough Egypt’s decision to request a $3.2 billion stand-by facility from the IMF will not be enough to cover its external funding needs in 2012. Instead, it will need at least double that amount to avoid a... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still likely to cut rates In its policy statement today the Bank of Canada maintained both its key policy interest at 1% and its wait-and-see policy approach. Although the Bank judges that weaker external factors are offset by... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) While the growth rate of the narrower M1 money aggregate has started to slow a little, M2 growth has remained broadly unchanged and the growth rate of our reconstructed measure of the broadest M3... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Unexpectedly strong in Q4, but property problems looming China’s Q4 data suggest the economy is stronger than previously thought. But problems in real estate are mounting as developers’ holdings of unsold properties swell. Meanwhile, investment appears to... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Dec.) January’s sharp monthly rise in the German ZEW index is certainly an encouraging sign, but the index still points to tough times ahead. 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update An update on Russia’s unrest In a Focus piece last month we outlined three possible ways in which the political situation in Russia might develop. Although it is still too early to say with any certainty how events will play out... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation took another step down in December and further chunky falls lie ahead, helped by the recent announcements of gas and electricity price cuts. This clears the way for significantly more asset... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
