Asia Economics Weekly Inflation has further to fall Inflation rose sharply in 2011 as a whole relative to 2010 across the region. However, we expect below-trend growth and lower commodity prices to pull down inflation significantly this year. With... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Does talk of euro intervention make sense? The Japanese Finance Minister has floated the possibility of another round of intervention in foreign exchange markets, this time aimed at stemming the rise of the yen against the euro. However, this... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's outlook rests on weaker footing We think the Bank of Canada's latest projections for economic growth this year and next are too high, mainly because they rely more heavily on sustained growth in household expenditures, particularly... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Industrial revival won’t last Recent signs that manufacturing activity is going from strength to strength have prompted some hopes that industry will save the economy from another year of pretty weak growth. The problem is that... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s safe-haven status remains secure The UK’s AAA rating always looked safer than the ratings of those euro-zone countries which have been recently downgraded. The UK might yet be in line for a downgrade at some point. But even then, it... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek debt deal won’t eliminate break-up risks The Greek government appears to be close to agreeing a deal with bond-holders which should both reduce its debt burden and ensure that it gets its second bail-out in time to finance the redemption of... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A stronger end to the year Consumers finally spent more on the high street before Christmas, perhaps tempted by the bigger price discounts that retailers were offering. 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) There’s no denying that home sales are still very low and will remain low for a few years. But after having risen in each of the last three months, including a 5.0% m/m gain in December, it is clear... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's drop in consumer price inflation, to 2.3% from 2.9%, reflects a trend that is likely to continue this year. As further declines in underlying inflation coincide with slower economic growth... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian growth easing, not overheating Following break-neck Q3 GDP growth in Colombia, there have been some concerns that the economy is overheating. But the recent activity data suggest that the pace of growth is now easing, while... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Although December’s official retail sales figures confirmed that consumers flocked to the high street in the run-up to Christmas, we still think that consumers will find it hard to keep increasing... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Have industrial rents become less sensitive to GDP? The falls in industrial rental values over the past few years have been much smaller than those seen in the early 1990s and also modest in relation to the depth of the 2008-09 recession. We suspect... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The flash PMI released today added to the impression that the economy is performing better than seemed likely a few weeks ago. China’s growth is still relatively subdued, but the economy ended the... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon and Jordan will manage their external funding needs At first glance, given their large external funding requirements, Lebanon and Jordan appear vulnerable to turmoil in international financial markets this year. However, we think that, in contrast to... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s growth will not be enough to avert price declines In keeping with much of this week’s China data, today’s flash estimate of the manufacturing PMI supports our view that the economy is heading for a soft landing in 2012. However, we still do not think... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
