US Housing Market Update Obama retunes his HARP President Obama’s latest proposal to help more households refinance to a lower mortgage rate is another policy that tinkers at the margins rather than striking at the heart of the problems that are... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s Humala makes a solid start; bigger challenges ahead Initial fears that the election of Ollanta Humala would mark a departure from the orthodox economic policies of his predecessor, Alan García, have proven to be wide of the mark. Even so, satisfying... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The end of Japan’s trade surpluses Japan today announced that it ran a full year merchandise trade deficit in 2011. Although one year’s deficit is relatively unimportant, we expect it will be repeated over the coming years. 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rally but economic data still gloomy The improvement in global risk appetite seen in recent weeks has ensured that financial markets across Emerging Europe have enjoyed a decent start to 2012. Yet we remain doubtful that this rebound can... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Dec.) In aggregate, December’s rise in the BBA measure of mortgage approvals only made up around half of last month’s fall. And given the prospect of tighter credit conditions and a renewed recession, the... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q4) & MPC Minutes (Jan.) Q4’s UK GDP figures confirmed fears that the economy is already contracting again. We won’t know for sure whether the economy is actually back in recession until we get Q1’s figures. But our bet is... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will UK property markets fare in 2012? A few local hot-spots aside, 2011 was not a great year for UK property markets. But the signs are that 2012 will be worse. Activity will remain weak and both commercial and residential property prices... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How will UK property markets fare in 2012? A few local hot-spots aside, 2011 was not a great year for UK property markets. But the signs are that 2012 will be worse. Activity will remain weak and both commercial and residential property prices... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan) January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that the economy is holding up relatively well, but activity is nowhere near strong enough to provide a meaningful boost to the euro-zone’s periphery. 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to cut further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as expected. Thailand’s economy has been hit hard by floods and weak global demand is likely to limit the rebound in... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bright start to 2012 for “risky” assets unlikely to last 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Robo-signing settlement will not be a game-changer Whether or not President Obama uses tonight’s State of the Union Address to announce a final resolution to the robo-signing fiasco, it would appear that an agreement is close at hand. The good news is... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will Chesapeake’s supply cut rescue US natural gas prices? The announcement of a production cut by the second largest US natural gas producer, Chesapeake, caused the US natural gas price to jump yesterday. However, we do not expect this to stop the price of... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to slow again in first quarter It appears that GDP growth accelerated to around 2.4% annualised in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8% in the third. But we suspect that, despite the apparent strength in some of the incoming data, it... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s markets: strong start to 2012 may not be sustained On the back of a smooth start to the new parliament, Egyptian equities have jumped by 5.4% so far this week, and CDS premia have fallen by around 70 basis points. However, since last year’s revolution... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
