UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jan.) January’s CIPS report on manufacturing added to evidence that the industrial recovery got back on track at the start of this year. Nonetheless, the survey also brought signs that the pick-up in output... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response E-Z CPI, Final Manu. PMI & ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jan.) The latest euro-zone economic data do nothing to alter our view that the region is set for another tough year, even if policymakers implement further measures to help bring the debt crisis to an end. 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have investors pushed UK property too far down their rankings? The UK appears to have fallen down the rankings as a target market for global property investors. In absolute terms, there is plenty of cause for caution about the outlook for UK capital values and... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) It is still too early to tell whether the latest fall in the Nationwide house price index is confirmation of a renewed downward trend. However, given that the economy is already contracting... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taxation plans in the Gulf are good news, but will take time Given that public finances are vulnerable to swings in oil prices, rumours that Qatar and other Gulf countries are considering Value-Added Tax (VAT) to diversify revenue sources are welcome. Indeed... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian growth increasingly dependent on high oil prices Today’s estimate of 2011 GDP growth for Russia surprised on the upside, but the underlying data reveal a growing reliance on high oil prices to sustain the current rate of expansion. We continue to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate likely to be cut this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its overnight rate at 3.0% today, as was widely anticipated. Looking ahead, we think that Malaysia’s exports will struggle and that inflation is likely to fall further... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January to 61.1, from 64.8 in December, doesn't sit well with the overall improvement in the economic data. Consumers remain a... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) The share of Americans who are willing and able to own their own home is still falling. The flipside is more households in the rented sector and fewer properties lacking tenants. This is helping to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still likely to fall this year The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) last night surprised the market once again by hiking interest rates by 25bps to 5.0%. But while this latest decision has cast some doubt over view on interest... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's disappointing 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was due entirely to a large drop in energy output. While we expect this important sector to rebound down the road, we now estimate that fourth... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) There are still no signs that house prices are on the verge of turning around, with the Case-Shiller measure falling for the seventh month in a row in November. But things should be different in six... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that most of the southern European economies are still struggling to make further major inroads into their budget deficits. With growth likely to weaken further in the... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan back in recession Taiwan’s economy contracted for a second successive quarter at the end of 2011 due not only to weak exports but to lacklustre domestic demand too. The central bank is soon likely to join the regional... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Output stronger than expected but difficulties remain Industrial production surprised on the upside in December, and survey evidence points to another strong month in January. Whilst it is nice to get some good news on the Japanese economy, it is hard to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
