China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in January but it is still likely to be much lower in a few months’ time. 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican banks can weather the euro-zone storm The close links between Mexican banks and the euro-zone have raised fears that the break-up of the monetary union will trigger a banking crisis in Mexico. But while we would caution against dismissing... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Feb.) The Arab world’s markets have underperformed in January. The exception is Egyptian stocks, which are up by 25% since the beginning of the year. However, we think that Egypt’s recovery is unlikely to... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the global recovery last the course this time? After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the global economy appears to have made a strong start to 2012. But we suspect that a combination of fiscal austerity, weak consumer confidence and a... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar rally unlikely to persist The Canadian dollar has attracted plenty of attention again as it moved back to parity with the US dollar, reflecting increased optimism about prospects for the global economy. We suspect, however... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Intervention moving up the agenda The February meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is likely to be uneventful, unless the Ministry of Finance orders another round of intervention in foreign exchange markets. If the Bank... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: too soon to sound the all clear The improvement in global risk appetite over the past couple of months has raised hopes that Ukraine will be able to muddle through 2012 in order to meet its significant external financing needs... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Collapse in shipping costs may be significant after all The wider significance of the 25-year low recorded in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains – has generally been... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity deal won’t mark a turning point for Greece Greek policymakers may soon agree on a new austerity and structural reform programme, reducing the chances of a disorderly default in March. Nonetheless, any deal is unlikely to prevent Greece’s... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank to resume cutting this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept its cash rate at 4.25% today. Nonetheless, we continue to expect conditions outside of the resources sector to remain weak and, despite the recent... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production was a serious blow to hopes that the economy might be recovering. The 2.9% monthly fall was far weaker than the consensus forecast of no change and came... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will retail warehouses underperform in the medium term? The fact that the retail warehouse secondary to prime yield spread is now not too far away from its 2006-07 lows may not necessarily make this sub-sector vulnerable to underperformance in the near... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ample global supply to keep wheat prices soft The price of the benchmark no. 2 soft red winter has already fallen by around 20 US cents to just over 660 cents per bushel after Russia’s decision on Friday not to impose any tariff on its grain... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update REO to rental programme could be the best housing fix so far Among the myriad of programmes rolled out to help the housing market, the proposal to sell the government’s stock of real estate owned homes to rental investors could just be the most effective yet. 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
