Emerging Europe Economics Update A Turkish soft landing still looks like a tall order Signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is narrowing, coupled with a marked improvement in global financing conditions, have raised hopes that it may be able to put its balance of payments on a... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What can emerging economies do to help the rest of the world? Emerging economies will continue growing rapidly this year and next while, despite a strong start to the year, we expect advanced economies to manage sub-trend growth, at best. But rapid growth in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s stuttering economy to avoid technical recession The Japanese economy contracted in Q4 but is already showing signs of recovery. Reconstruction spending should initiate a return to growth in 2012, but it will be from a low starting point and in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to ease this year The squeeze on real pay is finally easing. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to prevent a further drop in real consumer spending this year. However, it should lay the foundation for a recovery to start... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Project Merlin has not got credit flowing again The major UK banks have more or less met the Project Merlin lending targets set by the Government. But these targets were fairly meaningless in the first place and there are plenty of reasons to... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Chavez get stuck in the MUD? The opposition coalition in Venezuela (MUD) has selected Henrique Capriles Radonski to face Hugo Chavez in October’s presidential election. While the outcome of the vote is too close to call at this... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s buoyant labour markets Asia’s rapid economic rebound following the 2008-09 global crisis has led to sharp falls in unemployment over the past couple of years. This has raised hopes that robust household spending will... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What explains the modest gain in new house prices? The price of detached new houses rose by just 2.5% in 2011, slightly below the average annual increase of around 4.0% over the last ten years, which is not that much higher than average annual... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Participation rate will keep on falling It has been suggested that the reported decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.3% in January, from a high of 10.0% in February 2009, is not nearly as good as it looks because... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A closer look at the income account A large stream of income from Japan’s record holdings of overseas assets was the main reason the country did not record a current account deficit in 2011. With trade surpluses likely to be a thing of... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink, yet again The immense difficulties in finalising a second rescue package and debt restructuring for Greece have pushed the country right to the brink once more. Even if the policymakers manage again to step... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US economic data may provide more cheer, for now at least 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE unlikely to be nearing an end Some interpreted the Committee’s decision to increase QE by “only” £50bn last week as a sign that it is close to thinking that it has done enough. However, we think that next week’s Inflation Report... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's 5.1% m/m increase in export volumes reflects the recovery in Canadian auto production and, more generally, improvement in US economic activity. This surprising strength means that net... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high in December shouldn’t lead to a revision of fourth-quarter GDP growth, but it does highlight the deteriorating outlook for exports. 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports show renewed weakness China’s imports of commodities in January were surely distorted downwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays. Nonetheless, there are plenty of signs of underlying weakness... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
