Europe Economics Update Would a second Portuguese bail-out involve PSI? Portugal has made some progress in reining in its huge budget deficit, but it appears inevitable that it will need another rescue package. While there is a good chance that any new deal will not be... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) & Empire State (Feb.) Ignore the fact that industrial production was unchanged in January, well below the consensus forecast of a 0.7% m/m gain, the manufacturing sector is on a tear. Manufacturing output increased by 0.7%... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Multi-family starts will outperform again this year The latest rise in the NAHB homebuilder activity index suggests that housing starts began the year on the front foot. We think that growing investment demand will prompt homebuilders to increase... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will the Iranian oil embargo be? Oil prices have jumped on the announcement that Iran intends to suspend crude exports to six EU countries, taking Brent back above $120 per barrel. We expect the impact to be short-lived for three... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fresh recession in the Czech Republic weighing on property outlook News from the Czech Republic this morning revealed that it slipped back into a technical recession in the second half of 2011. This has had little meaningful impact on the commercial property market... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How big is the problem of latent mortgage distress? Data released last week confirmed the downward trend in mortgage arrears and possessions. The popular perception is that both have benefitted from low interest rates and the relatively benign labour... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro-zone recession to hit UK exports soon The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s Bank of England Inflation Report suggested that the MPC is unlikely to extend its asset purchase programme much further. But we think that inflation will fall further... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update In spite of recent plans, IMF help is still needed in Egypt With the government committed to safeguarding the pound and foreign funding yet to materialise, Egypt looks set to turn to its expatriates to raise debt finance. But while this would help capital... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The provisional Q4 euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted at the end of last year, albeit by a bit less than had been feared. The 0.3% quarterly fall was slightly better than the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia facing a tough year ahead Malaysia’s economy grew at a slower pace in Q4 than it did in Q3, in line with the regional trend. We expect Malaysia to suffer a double hit from softer exports and lower commodity prices this year... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) The labour market data continue to paint a bit of a mixed picture, but the key point is that unemployment is still rising and is likely to increase much further in response to the sluggish economic... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth still set to disappoint in 2012 The raft of fourth quarter GDP data released this morning contained something for everyone: while Hungary defied the odds and grew in the final quarter of the year, the Czech economy contracted... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippine remittances to remain resilient The provisional Q4 euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted at the end of last year, albeit by a bit less than had been feared. The 0.3% quarterly fall was slightly better than the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates on hold as Chile’s economy regains some momentum Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.0% last night in response to a small rebound in domestic economic activity and a temporary recovery in global market sentiment. The latest... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
