China Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The distortion caused by Chinese New Year contributed to the higher-than-expected headline consumer price inflation in January but it will also bring February’s figures down markedly. We do not... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are America’s fiscal prospects even worse than Europe’s? At first glance, America's fiscal prospects are worse than those of the peripheral euro-zone countries, although the US does have a few key advantages that mean it should continue to enjoy very low... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Dec.) On the face of it, December’s industrial production and trade figures added to the recent run of stronger data on the UK economy. But a closer look at the numbers suggests that the improvement is... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q4) Mortgage arrears and possessions declined in the final quarter of last year and were at their lowest level for four years in 2011 as a whole. But it is difficult to envisage a repeat performance in... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q4) Buy-to-let was a bright spot within a subdued mortgage market last year. But activity ground to a halt in the fourth quarter – a reminder that landlords are not immune to the fears of a double-dip... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Some more encouraging signs on investment & confidence Today’s report on core machinery orders in December adds to the evidence that GDP contracted in Q4. However, it also points to a recovery in non-residential investment this year that should help the... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro strengthens to a new high for the year against the dollar 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' one year on This Saturday marks a year since the end of Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade reign over Egypt. Only a few weeks before that, Tunisia’s revolution ended with the toppling of the Ben Ali regime. Since then... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing juggernaut on uneven footing The latest building permits and housing starts data indicate that new housing construction is not slowing down much. Although this is good for economic activity this quarter, we are still concerned... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How much will weak export demand weigh on Asia? Exports from Asia have weakened significantly in recent months. Not only are they contracting in y/y terms in many countries, but they have slowed much more sharply compared with other emerging... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: central bank may pause before cutting rates again Signs that Chile’s economy regained some momentum heading into 2012 should prompt the central bank (CBC) to keep rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Nevertheless, if the bright start to the year in... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus How would the US cope with a euro break-up? The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The latest weakness of mortgage applications for home purchase may suggest that the recent improvement in home sales is not built on solid foundations. While strict credit scoring and widespread... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Uncertain outlook overshadows improving output Recent survey evidence has pointed to a further pick-up in economic activity in January, but also highlighted the considerable uncertainty in the economic environment. The results of January’s Economy... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q4) Given that official data have already shown that construction output fell in Q4, the negative headline balance from today’s RICS construction survey was no surprise. More interestingly, the sector... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is availability still relevant to the industrial rental outlook? Viewed over a 30-year horizon, there may be a case for thinking that IPD industrial rental values have become largely immune to overhangs of vacant space. However, over the past decade, the... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
