Global Markets Update Too soon to call the end of the bull market in Treasuries Reduced fears of a meltdown in the euro-zone and the recent run of better economic data – culminating in January’s unequivocally strong US payrolls report – have led to speculation that the long bull... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth to ease only slightly in Indonesia Indonesia’s economy continued to grow strongly in the fourth quarter of last year. Underlining the economy’s resilience, household consumption and investment growth actually accelerated despite a... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty threatens Romania's splendid isolation It goes without saying that today’s resignation of the Romanian Prime Minister, Emil Boc, in response to growing public discontent with austerity, is likely to weigh heavily on the country’s financial... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal reforms still key to preventing excessive FX appreciation On past form at least, the latest set of measures announced by Colombia and Brazil to curb currency strength are unlikely to have a lasting impact on foreign exchange markets. Instead, fiscal reforms... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI data show that activity in the UAE’s non-oil private sector accelerated modestly. But the bigger picture is that the slowdown in the pace of growth seen in the second half of last year... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The latest rise in the Halifax house price index does little to detract from the underlying downward trend on this measure. And given rising unemployment and the fact that valuation metrics suggest... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI data show that, on the back of fiscal stimulus boosting domestic demand, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector made a strong start to the year. However, a surge in input prices is... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Better data have not alleviated the need for more QE November’s Inflation Report forecasts suggested that significantly more QE is needed and we don’t think that the recent improvement in the economic data has significantly altered that picture. 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update French rental value prospects are bad, but not "Portuguese" bad Recent survey evidence suggests that the rental outlook in France is about as bad as it is in Portugal. We agree that the prospects for French rental values are pretty weak. However, the sheer scale... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Property crumbling, but strength elsewhere The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) provides further evidence of a spurt in economic activity at the end of 2011. But property construction does seem to be slowing and, for that sector at... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Federal austerity not needed Recent remarks by government officials suggest that the upcoming Federal budget, expected in March, will deliver spending cuts that are deeper and sooner than those already outlined in last year's... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia approaches policy dilemma Inflation has been falling across Asia, and the Q4 GDP data released so far show that growth is slowing too. For the most part, we expect these trends to continue. But Indonesia is an important... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Federal debt burden set to keep on climbing Last week both the Fed Chairman and the non-partisan CBO issued a stark warning about the fiscal path that America is heading down. Unless corrective action is taken, by the end of this decade Federal... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Compact agreed, but economies diverge While European leaders have now agreed to the fiscal compact proposed last year, its terms have been diluted significantly. Meanwhile, their economies have continued to diverge. Most worryingly, while... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
