US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) Signs of a modest housing market recovery are noticeable everywhere but in the house price data. Today’s CoreLogic release shows that prices were still falling at a reasonable clip in the final month... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A cautionary note on copper January’s recovery in the price of copper was driven by four positives, none of which we expect to be sustained. Accordingly, despite hopes elsewhere of a sustained surge past $10,000 per tonne, from... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Might UK interest rates turn negative? The major UK banks have more or less met the Project Merlin lending targets set by the Government. But these targets were fairly meaningless in the first place and there are plenty of reasons to... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan.) The CIPS/Markit PMI showed that commercial property construction activity expanded for the 23 rd consecutive month in January. But with the economy likely to remain very weak, we think that the risks... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy stumbles in the fourth quarter November's surprising 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was caused by a sharp drop in energy output. All things considered, we now figure that fourth-quarter GDP grew by 1.5% annualised, below our previous... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack New Year rally built on shaky foundations January was a better month for commodities, supported by hopes of an improvement in the global macroeconomic and financial backdrop. However, the recovery in the US economy has yet to convince even... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up in January, but will it last? The increase in manufacturing PMIs for January confirms that the global economy began 2012 in better shape than seemed likely a few weeks ago. But the improvement is from a low base and there are... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The continued steady turnaround in the industrial sector, as suggested by the rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.1 in January, from 53.1, appears to be due to both the resilience of the... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs signal industrial slowdown has abated Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) improved for four out of the five economies in Asia (outside Japan and China) for which they were released today. This suggests that the slowdown in industrial... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation squeeze starts to ease December’s chunky fall in CPI inflation from 4.8% to 4.2% is likely to be followed by further falls that take inflation to 1% or below by the end of the year. 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth to remain weak despite expansionary budget Hong Kong’s economy remained weak in the fourth quarter. Despite an expansionary budget, falling inflation, and the prospect of continued strong spending by Chinese tourists, Hong Kong’s trade... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry finding its feet The rise in January’s manufacturing PMI adds to recent evidence that Brazil’s economy has turned the corner. We expect interest rates to be lowered by a further 100bps to 9.5% over the next couple of... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Increasing intangible investment – implications for equity prices If corporate expenditure on intangible assets is treated as investment, rather than as an expense, the US stock market appears much less overvalued than traditional barometers of “fair” value suggest... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jan.) Both of China’s manufacturing PMIs have picked up over the past two months, adding to evidence that the economy has found its feet in the last few weeks. 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to signs of stabilisation January’s manufacturing PMI data provide some evidence that the slump in industry in Emerging Europe’s most open economies is bottoming out. However, the Czech and Hungarian readings are still... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
