Europe Economics Weekly Could Germany yet save the euro? Worries about the Greek debt deal were offset last week by greater optimism towards Germany. Not only were there further signs of a pick-up in the economy, but Angela Merkel hinted that she would be... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed may still unleash QE3 soon The Fed's new interest rate projections ended up having only a modest impact on market expectations last week. Indeed, the impact was smaller than we might have expected based on the pledge in the... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Power uncertainty will accelerate hollowing out Growing uncertainty about the future of Japan’s power supply will accelerate the hollowing out of industry as electricity shortages discourage investment in Japan and encourage a shift of production... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Contraction unlikely to be just a blip High inflation, rather than ‘temporary factors’ or the euro-zone debt crisis, seems to have been the key driver of the economy’s shift from stagnation to contraction in the fourth quarter. While at... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: impressive end to 2011, but a slowdown ahead Russia’s economy appears to have ended 2011 on a high note. Our estimates suggest that GDP grew by 5.0% y/y in Q4 – a slight improvement on 4.8% y/y in Q3. Even so, a combination of falling oil prices... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The acceleration in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.8% in the third, suggests that the recovery is gathering momentum. However, the much bigger than expected positive... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Recent monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending has helped to reduce strains in interbank markets to some extent. However, money and credit growth have weakened further. 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth: losing some steam Although today’s preliminary estimate of 2011 GDP growth surprised on the upside, the Polish economy slowed in the fourth quarter of last year. Poland is better placed than its neighbours to weather... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was the Fed statement really so positive for commodities? The prices of most commodities, like those other riskier assets, have been rising after Wednesday’s Fed statement was widely interpreted as a “pledge” to keep US interest rates on hold until the end... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to face the ugly truth on inflation? The IMF’s forthcoming consultation with Argentina on a new inflation methodology seems unlikely to succeed where previous missions have failed. But with balance of payments strains growing, the allure... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s weak growth to bring rate cuts soon Today’s Q4 GDP data from Korea show that the economy ended 2011 on a very weak note. Growth is likely to be sluggish at best over the next few quarters amid soft global demand, while Korea’s inflation... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Falling capital values to dent total returns Events in the euro-zone will act as a drag on property markets throughout Europe. As a result, most non-euro-zone commercial property markets will suffer some renewed falls in capital values this year... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook On the cusp of a fresh downturn The recovery in capital values seen in most euro-zone property markets over the past year or so, looks set to be reversed in 2012. As the economy slides back into a deep recession, occupier demand... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
