UK Economics Focus What more can the policymakers do? There are no easy options left for the policymakers – but there are still options. For the MPC, there is not only more QE, but altering the form this takes. For the Government there are plenty of ways... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's modest 0.2% m/m increase in retail sales masks the real good news, which was that sales volumes grew by an even stronger 0.5% m/m. For four months in a row retail volumes have increased... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rates on hold, but problems ahead The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept interest rates on hold today on the back of easing strains in the financial markets. This has come against the backdrop of talks with the IMF and EU apparently... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of Turkish easing looks premature Despite the recent rally in the lira and signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is starting to narrow, the reduction in effective interest rates seen over the past few weeks is likely to prove... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s public finance figures showed that government borrowing is still coming in comfortably below last year’s totals. But with tomorrow’s GDP figures possibly set to show that the economy is... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s increase in the euro-zone composite PMI is certainly an encouraging sign, but the survey still suggests that the region is in recession. 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India cautious on rate cuts The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its cash reserve requirement today but left the repo rate on hold. The hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that, although rate cuts are surely coming... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Osborne’s hidden windfall Quantitative easing (QE) is not only helping to reduce gilt yields for the Government, but it is also lowering the amount that the Government is paying out in debt interest and therefore helping to... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets hit by Iran tensions The escalation of tensions with Iran has meant that financial markets in the Gulf have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world so far this year. While the MSCI emerging market equity... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will falling inflation come to the rescue? A major constraint on economic growth last year – high inflation – now looks set to ease. However, this boost will not prevent household spending from falling again in 2012. Thankfully, near-zero... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is now the time to buy? If house prices and rents evolve as we expect then, over a normal holding period, it will be better to own rather than rent the average home. This should go some way to reviving Americans’ appetite... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's equities outperform in early 2012 Emerging Asia’s equities have risen by more than the global average so far this year, but we do not expect the outperformance to last. Stock markets in Asia typically underperform developed markets... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Activity weak and outlook uncertain Economic conditions took a turn for the worse in November, as output, spending and exports all declined. Sentiment indicators for December were mixed with business confidence mostly stable, but... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How would a European Tobin Tax affect the UK? France is spearheading a drive to push ahead with a “Tobin tax” on financial transactions in Europe, even though the UK has ruled out taking part. If a comprehensive tax were introduced, the potential... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
