UK Markets Chart Pack Growth fears drive gilt yields lower The further drop in gilt yields appears to have reflected declining expectations for GDP growth and related falls in long-term interest rate expectations, rather than fiscal developments. Indeed, the... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold price to surge on euro break-up fears The price of gold has made an encouraging start to the year, rising by around 6% so far in US dollar terms and outperforming most other assets. Admittedly, at around $1,655 per ounce, gold is still... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Early signs that mortgage credit conditions are loosening Credit conditions in the US have stopped tightening and there are signs that they are now loosening. We expect this to continue, supporting home sales and putting a floor under house prices. But any... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will China pull the rug from under Latin America? This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Latin America Watch. This will analyse major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at the impact... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy loosening to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) cut its overnight rate by 25bp to 4.25% today, as expected. Exports have slumped and are unlikely to pick up much this year, while inflation is set to fall towards... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The rebound in November's manufacturing volumes, which rose by 1.7% m/m, more than offset the previous month's decline and points to monthly GDP growth of around 0.3% m/m, which is broadly consistent... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices were unchanged in December and the annual CPI inflation rate declined to 3.0%, from 3.4%. Favourable base effects will generate an even sharper drop in that annual inflation rate over... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The fall in housing starts in December was driven by a steep decline in the often volatile multi-family sector, while starts of single-family homes actually rose slightly. In any case, December’s fall... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch GDP & inflation forecasts downgrade The January meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will yield updated forecasts for GDP and inflation but probably little else. We don’t expect any changes in the Board’s monetary policy stance... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how hard will the euro crisis hit the UK? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone commencing this year could knock some 3% to 4% off the level of UK GDP by the end of 2013. A bigger, more disorderly, break-up... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will China’s rebalancing last? China’s trade surplus has halved in the last three years thanks to global weakness and the strength of Chinese investment demand. We expect a further decline in 2012, but then a rebound as China’s... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How will housing transactions fare in 2012? At first glance, the resilience of buyer enquiries in the closing stages of 2011 is encouraging news for the housing market. Yet we are inclined to place more weight on reports that mortgage demand... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few surprises as BCB signals further easing to come There were few surprises from Brazilian policymakers last night as they cut interest rates by 50bps to 10.50% and signalled further easing to come. Despite tentative signs that the economy has picked... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jan.) There are obviously major uncertainties about what form Scottish independence might take if it happens, including what currency Scotland might use and what responsibility for RBS she might take on... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the best for the German office market passed? All the headline indicators for the German office market, i.e. take-up, vacancy rates and rents, moved in the right direction last year. But we expect the final stages of 2011 to prove to be the high... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
