Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic likely to be the first in recession A raft of Q4 GDP data for Emerging Europe, due next week, is likely to show that growth slowed sharply across the region. It appears that the Czech economy ended 2011 in recession and the Hungarian... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Foreign Trade (Jan.) We draw two very tentative conclusions from today’s lending and trade data: domestic demand is still slowing and the pace of policy easing is very slow. 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) Stronger monthly rises in both input and output prices in January did not prevent further falls in the annual inflation rates. And while February may see another sharp monthly rise in input prices... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Dutch commercial property heading for a crash? We think that Dutch commercial property values will fall this year and next as the economy slides back into recession. But one view, emanating from the Netherlands Central Bank (DNB) last week, is... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack More QE greeted with muted market reaction UK markets’ initial reaction to the £50bn of extra QE sanctioned by the MPC suggests that the announcement fell a bit short of investors’ expectations. Indeed, the pound strengthened shortly after the... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Slightly easier credit supporting sales The rise in home sales in each of the three months to December is the clearest sign yet that a modest housing market recovery is underway. The fact that mortgage approvals are still subdued, however... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Another look at China's shifting labour market China is undergoing a major shift in its labour market as the surplus of rural workers dries up. But, after delving into the details, we conclude that several factors will dampen the speed at which... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Robo-signing settlement doesn't change the big picture News that the $25bn robo-signing settlement has been finalised is good for those homeowners who will benefit from the principal reductions and refinancing schemes that form part of the deal. But the... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB focuses on credit crunch dangers The ECB today approved further measures to address the danger of a credit crunch in the euro-zone. However, it continues to resist taking more direct action to tackle the region’s fiscal crisis. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gilts unimpressed by £50bn more QE, but outlook still rosy Gilt yields bounced on Thursday after the UK MPC announced a £50bn planned increase in the size of its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to £325bn. While this presumably reflected disappointment in some... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in Brent likely to be temporary At least half a dozen explanations have been advanced for the recent jump in the price of Brent crude oil, whether in absolute terms or relative to the traditional US benchmark, West Texas... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Even though Egyptian inflation fell in January, the recent slump in foreign currency reserves to dangerously low levels may leave the central bank with no choice but to hike rates next month. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank too sanguine on outlook for growth The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Our view is that Korea’s policymakers are likely to shift their focus away from tackling inflation towards supporting growth... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A cut too far by Bank Indonesia? Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its reference rate again today by 25bp. The decision was somewhat unexpected. The central bank had already cut rates by a cumulative 75bp in the final quarter of last year and... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Extra £50bn unlikely to be the last of QE The MPC’s decision to increase its asset purchase programme by another £50bn was as expected and confirmed that the recent improvement in the economic data has not alleviated the need for policymakers... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
