UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK institutions make a comeback in January Much of the economic data has had a slightly healthier tone this month, but it is too soon to know how durable the apparent improvement might be. Meanwhile, although rental values were flat again in... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Signs of a return to “two-speed” growth Activity in much of Latin America appears to have picked up over the past couple of months, following the slowdown seen over the second half of last year. But while worries about the overall pace of... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property recovery hopes dashed by PMIs This morning’s “flash” release of euro-zone PMI data poured cold water on hopes that Q4’s quarterly economic contraction would be a one-off. Indeed, it looks as though the euro-zone is now in a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvements in PMIs mask underlying fragility The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for February improved in both China and the euro-zone, but remain at levels consistent with further falls in the prices of industrial metals. The detail... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Is this the real deal? Hopes that the US economy has finally embarked on a significant and sustained recovery are likely to be dashed by events overseas. There is little doubt that the economy has strengthened in the early... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) The minutes of February’s MPC meeting were slightly more dovish than last week’s Inflation Report, leaving a further extension of quantitative easing (QE) looking a bit more likely than before. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The flash PMI released today suggests that conditions in manufacturing have stabilised but are relatively subdued. Foreign demand appears to have weakened. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s fall in the euro-zone PMI puts a bit of a dent in hopes that Q4’s economic contraction will prove to be a one off. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC: full political union a non-starter King Abdullah’s plan for a full political union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is unlikely to materialise. Although each country within the GCC is similar both in terms of economic structure... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of Putin's pledges We estimate that, if fully implemented, the various pledges made by PM Putin over the past couple of months would cause government spending to rise by Rb4.8trn by 2018 (equivalent to 4-5% of GDP)... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December's 0.2% m/m decline in retail sales, which was largely due to weaker auto-related sales, follows several months of strong sales. This decline might be the first sign that this recent strength... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek rescue deal has shallow foundations The new rescue deal for Greece should buy the euro-zone a bit of time. But we think that the package is based on unrealistic economic assumptions and will be no more successful than the first deal... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rates still more likely to fall than rise Recent data suggest that Mexico made a decent start to Q1. However, growth remains vulnerable to a deterioration in external conditions, particularly in the US, and while we are more upbeat than a few... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish interest rates: little room for manoeuvre The Turkish central bank’s (CBRT’s) decision today to lower the upper bound of its interest rate “corridor” suggests that it is increasingly confident of achieving a gradual adjustment in the current... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the yen The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar in more than six months, with the exchange rate now just a whisker below 80. The principal catalysts for the weakening of the currency have... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
