Asia Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to high oil prices? Recent oil price increases are not a big threat to emerging Asia. The inflationary impact will be small even if prices remain at current levels. Asian economies are relatively oil-dependent but their... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Conflicting aims of REO and mortgage fee-raising policies The Administration’s housing policies are still not adequately addressing the fact that housing supply is too high and that demand is too low. The new details of the plan to sell REOs to investors to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will German consumer optimism cause a spending revival? The recent rise in German consumer confidence looks very encouraging at face value. But with wage and employment growth already slowing, we doubt that it will be sustained. And in the meantime, fears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates on hold as NBH stays in “wait and see” mode The decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) today to keep interest rates on hold at 7% was widely expected, with a narrow majority of policymakers now seemingly willing to wait and see whether... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices to fall back as China’s demand disappoints Soybean prices have strengthened recently on hopes of continued robust demand from China, the world’s major importer, reflected in news of increased purchases from the US. However, we expect growth in... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jan.) Given other house price reports already in, January’s jump in the Land Registry house price index was a little surprising. However, given the volatility of the monthly data and the fact that December... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in pointing to a slight improvement in sentiment in the euro-zone. But there are few signs of the strong economic growth needed to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Jump in retail sales due to temporary factors The sharp rise in retail spending in January does not herald a resurgence in consumer spending. Sales are likely to drop back when one-off supports, such as the temporary reintroduction of the eco-car... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Markets awaiting outcome of German vote on Greek rescue deal 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate cuts are coming in Vietnam Falling inflation gives the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) scope to cut interest rates to support growth. However, large cuts could end up destabilising the fragile economy. The SBV will need to be... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Super low gilt yields here to stay The recent improvement in both the timeliest economic news and sentiment towards the euro-zone has led investors to question whether the exceptionally low levels of gilt yields that were reached at... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A stronger yen likely to undermine Japan’s stock market Japan’s stock market has been on a roll. We do not expect the good times to last. Although we are revising up our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts for the Nikkei 225 slightly, to 7,750 (versus 7,500... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Concerns about Brazilian credit growth starting to resurface Having shown signs of slowing in the second half of last year, Brazilian credit growth appears to have picked up again in recent months. But while this should give a boost to overall GDP growth in the... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending is boosting the broad money supply. However, lending to firms and consumers remains very weak and the bank lending survey... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers in a sweet spot The rise in consumer spending in the final quarter of last year added to other evidence that the consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Falling inflation should continue to alleviate the squeeze on... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia hikes rates as imbalances resurface The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) increased interest rates by 25bps to 5.25% on Friday night. With concerns about the strength of the peso and unbalanced growth coming back onto the agenda, we... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
