UK Housing Market Update Could increased Chinese demand boost London house prices? Recent growth in the number of Chinese buyers in the London residential market has raised hopes (or fears) that as and when the renminbi becomes fully convertible the floodgates could open. However... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Good start to 2012 but from a low base Economic conditions took a turn for the worse in November, as output, spending and exports all declined. Sentiment indicators for December were mixed with business confidence mostly stable, but... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finance figures showed that government borrowing remains on track to undershoot the OBR’s forecast for this year, meaning that at next month’s Budget, the Chancellor is likely to... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy loosening proceeds at a crawl Nearly three months after the People’s Bank signalled a shift in stance and first cut the required reserve ratio, policy remains tight. Admittedly, benchmark interest rates never climbed back to the... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global trade slowed last year, prospects poor for 2012 World trade growth slowed in 2011 as economic activity faltered. There was a slight pick-up in the last quarter, which looks set to continue early this year, but we think trade is likely to remain... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is this recovery the real deal? The advanced economies have started the year strongly, led by the US, but the recovery is not secure. Growth could still be derailed by fiscal policy tightening, ongoing debt deleveraging, further... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Worse to come for Spain Recent economic indicators from Spain suggest that it is currently faring rather better than the other troubled southern euro-zone economies. But Spain’s economic fundamentals look grim. We expect the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn to trade at a premium to wheat We expect both corn and wheat prices to decline over the next two years due to a combination of ample supply, increasing competition between key grains exporting regions and a disappointing global... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran’s latest position bearish (sic) for oil prices The apparent escalation in tensions between Iran and the EU over the weekend has been widely interpreted as bullish for oil prices. However, Iran’s position looks increasingly weak and the regime may... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s weak economy to bring more rate cuts Today’s Q4 GDP data show that, due to widespread floods, Thailand’s economy suffered a bigger quarterly contraction in late-2011 than it did in either the 2008-09 global crisis or the Asian Financial... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Chinese New Year hits exports but trade deficit to continue Japan recorded its largest ever single-month trade deficit in January, as Chinese New Year holidays elsewhere in Asia caused exports to slump. Although the deficit should fall in February as the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gradual policy easing to continue The weekend cut to reserve requirements was so long in coming that some investors had begun to question whether the People’s Bank was really committed to policy loosening at all. We believe it is... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore budget focuses on the medium term Singapore’s FY2012 budget, released on Friday, focused on medium-term issues rather than providing a near-term boost for the economy. The outlook for Singapore’s export-oriented economy is not as bad... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Mind the output gap trap It is easy to fall into the trap of debating how large or small the output gap is. The simple truth, however, is that no one knows. But while the output gap is not directly observable, the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
