Canada Economics Weekly Weakness in Q4 GDP growth likely to persist Despite more upbeat fourth-quarter net exports, our calculations suggest that softer business investment, particularly inventories, held back fourth-quarter GDP growth. From what we can tell, growth... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in energy prices won't stop inflation falling Mervyn King’s forecast of a “zig-zag” year grabbed the headlines after last week’s Inflation Report, with the Governor warning that June’s extra bank holiday would lead to a bumpy path for output this... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly France won't stay in the lead for long Q4’s GDP figures revealed that France was one of the few euro-zone economies to expand at the end of last year. But prospects for French exports are marred by fairly weak competitiveness and a... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Additional monetary easing is not enough The Bank of Japan’s latest increase in its asset purchase program has caused asset prices to rally and the yen to weaken. However, it remains to be seen whether the effect will be sustained and... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling inflation offers some relief There have been some signs of a pick-up in consumer spending. But some measures are more upbeat than others. And more generally, consumers are still facing a set of tough conditions. 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January's consumer price data are a mixed bag. Headline inflation fell to a ten-month low of 2.9%, from 3.0%, while core inflation edged up to a three-year high of 2.3%, from 2.2%. Favourable base... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary concedes ground to the EC, but barriers still lie ahead Hungary’s government left it late to reply to the EC’s decision to start infringement proceedings. But the fact that it has done so, coupled with conciliatory comments from PM Orban, has raised hopes... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) January's increase in consumer price inflation, to 2.5% from 2.3%, is mostly a reflection of some recent noise in new motor vehicle and electricity prices. Since these prices are also included in the... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina's economy looks to have come off the boil in Q4 Evidence of a deceleration of economic growth in Q4 2011 may signal the start of a more protracted slowdown in Argentina. Without a concerted near-term tightening of policy, it seems unlikely that a... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) On the face of it, January’s official retail sales figures suggest that a recovery in high street spending is gaining momentum. But there are reasons to doubt the strength of the official data. In any... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How exposed are equity markets to investor risk aversion? Whereas all of Latin America’s equity markets would be hit by a renewed bout of investor risk aversion, some appear to be more vulnerable than others. Specifically, Brazilian, Argentine and Mexican... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are US equities really attractively valued relative to bonds? 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last The Swedish Riksbank indicated that it expects its latest 25 basis point interest rate cut to be the last in the cycle. But we expect the adverse knock-on effects from an intensification of the euro... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery at a crossroads... again The recent improvement in the incoming economic data, particularly in relation to the labour market, has raised hopes that the US economy could shrug off the crisis in the euro-zone and finally enjoy... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook 'Arab Spring' puts the focus on near-term divergence It is becoming clear that one year on from the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are facing difficult transitions. Most of these are in... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the US equity risk premium reached a peak? Part of the justification provided in some quarters for the recent rise in the US stock market is that equities are attractively valued relative to bonds. We do not dispute this fact – the equity risk... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
