Europe Data Response German GDP Breakdown (Q4) The detailed German GDP release for Q4 revealed that the 0.2% quarterly contraction reflected falls in both exports and consumer spending. While survey data point to a slight improvement in Q1, we... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Risks to growth still skewed to the downside Almost all countries in emerging Asia have now released their Q4 GDP figures. Growth slowed across most of the region, mainly due to weakness in external demand. The recent improvement in the US, a... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How far would an IEA stock release lower oil prices? There are several grounds for thinking that the International Energy Agency (IEA) would be quicker to release stocks in response to a further surge in oil prices if due to tensions with Iran than it... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth still slowing The raft of Q4 GDP data released over the past month showed that growth slowed pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe. The Czech Republic became the first economy in the region to fall back into a... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack High oil prices to swell Gulf coffers The jump in oil prices over the past month has sharpened the divide between the relatively bright outlook for the Middle East’s resource-rich countries, and the less rosy outlook for its resource-poor... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much will fiscal austerity constrain the recovery? Governments in most advanced economies have been tightening fiscal policy since 2010 and will continue to do so this year. Our best guess is that growth in 2012 will consequently be around 0.5... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q4) and payroll employment (Dec.) The 9.0% q/q increase in fourth-quarter corporate operating profits, following two consecutive quarterly declines, is encouraging with respect to growth prospects for business investment and payroll... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up? The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase made by the major banks hit a two-year high in January. But unless they are mirrored in the more comprehensive Bank of England data released next week, they may... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s rise in the German Ifo index adds to evidence that the economy might avoid falling into recession in Q1, but this still looks set to be a tough year. 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from rising oil prices? Oil prices are still below the levels that would represent a serious threat to the global economic recovery. But even now Europe is significantly more vulnerable than the US, despite the higher... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad were the Q4 GDP data for emerging Asia? Economic growth in the final quarter of last year was disappointing for most economies in emerging Asia. Although risks to growth are generally on the downside, a closer look at Q4 GDP data suggests... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PPI payments don’t change consumer spending outlook Today’s data from the FSA showed that banks are picking up the pace at which they are compensating consumers for mis-sold Payment Protection Insurance (PPI). While the compensation will provide a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The 4.3% m/m rise in existing home sales in January is not quite as encouraging as it first appears given that it comes at the expense of a 5.0% downward revision to the previous month’s figures. The... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
