UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) Although they will come as little surprise to market participants, the latest data from the Bank of England confirm that the availability of credit for commercial property transactions continued to... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals are being driven higher by the looming end of the first-time buyer stamp duty holiday and are likely to fall back sharply come April. Thereafter, rising unemployment and falling... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update LTROs won't solve the euro-zone crisis The ECB’s second three-year loan operation will provide further vital support for the euro-zone’s beleaguered banking sector. But hopes that the funds will also solve the fiscal crisis and breathe... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s growth rate slows, recovery likely to be gradual Data published today reveal a further drop in India’s GDP growth in the last quarter of 2011. Moreover investment has stalled, setting back hopes that trend growth will rise towards Chinese levels. 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4) Q4’s Swedish GDP figures brought the strongest evidence yet that the problems in the euro-zone are taking their toll on Europe’s healthiest economies. We continue to think that the Riksbank will lower... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why is the UK lagging behind? Since the financial crisis began, the UK has been the worst performer of all the major advanced economies. And the factors that explain the underperformance, together with new shocks that look set to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for healthy growth After a stellar performance in 2011, Saudi Arabia’s private businesses are likely to see another year of healthy growth in 2012. We expect government spending to rise again this year, and bank lending... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite surging gasoline prices, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence shot up to a 12-month high of 70.8 in February, from 61.5 last month. The latest increase presumably reflects the... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru to remain among the region’s best performers in 2012 Peru’s economy was one of Latin America’s standout performers in 2011, expanding by 7%. Looking ahead, the country’s solid macro fundamentals, combined with ample space for a policy response in the... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Too early to sound the all clear for the Dublin office market The strong increase in take-up in the Dublin office market in 2011 is not as encouraging as it first seems. For one thing, survey evidence and labour market data suggest that the strength of... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q4) Although the rate at which house prices are falling accelerated at the end of last year, it may only be a few more months before the decline seen over the last five years comes to an end. We expect... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 4.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in January, which more than reversed a 3.2% m/m gain in December, suggests that the expiry at the end of last year of the accelerated tax allowances for... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German CPI inflation reflected a rise in energy inflation, which is unlikely to be sustained. But for now, relatively high inflation is one reason to expect consumer spending to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows are a threat to Asia The return of global risk appetite has helped to push up asset prices across Asia. If we are correct that the crisis in the euro-zone will worsen again later this year, global risk appetite is likely... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
