Emerging economies will continue growing rapidly this year and next while, despite a strong start to the year, we expect advanced economies to manage sub-trend growth, at best. But rapid growth in emerging markets will be of limited help to the advanced economies because there will be little progress on rebalancing by the large surplus economies – notably China and the oil exporters. Governments in emerging markets will also be reluctant to use their foreign reserves to boost bail-out funds which could be used if, as we expect, the euro-zone crisis escalates.
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