GDP growth to slow again in first quarter

It appears that GDP growth accelerated to around 2.4% annualised in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8% in the third. But we suspect that, despite the apparent strength in some of the incoming data, it will slow again in the first quarter of this year. The recent dramatic drop off in the growth rate of retail sales is one of our biggest concerns for the first quarter. After peaking last September, the monthly gains in sales have tailed off to the point where sales actually fell back slightly in December. The upshot is we expect a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the first quarter and consequently, wouldn't be surprised if overall GDP growth dipped back below 2.0%.