Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole & Preliminary Benchmark Revisions

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance, with Warsh arguing that the recent softer price data do not indicate that “underlying trends have meaningfully improved” and, absent more progress, the Fed has “work to do”. If anything, that leaves the door open to a hike earlier than our current forecast of December, if the forthcoming price data are firm.