Latin America Economics Update Chile to cut rates as economic activity cools A minor upturn in Chile’s November economic activity does little to alter the overall trend towards slower growth heading into 2012. With external demand set to deteriorate further over the course of... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey poised for a sharp rise in property yields? Given the prospect of a recession in Turkey this year, it could be argued that property yields are currently too low. Indeed, we expect them to increase this year. But their apparent resilience during... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, lessons for Hungary The National Bank of Romania (NBR) cut its benchmark interest rate today, as expected. Crucially, stable politics and an IMF backstop have provided the NBR with scope to cut rates in response to the... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Today’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that the supply of residential mortgage finance continues to improve slowly. But with lenders now tightening credit scoring criteria again, this is less... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Services Report (Dec.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) December’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the manufacturing and construction surveys already released in suggesting that the recovery regained some momentum at the very end of last year... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market resilience unlikely to last The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia PMIs paint mixed picture December PMIs for Asia paint a mixed picture. The surveys suggest manufacturing output returned to growth in Australia, while in contrast to the weakness of recent data, factory output rebounded... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much difference will the Fed's rate forecasts make? The US Fed’s decision to start to publish forecasts for its key official interest rate could be another useful policy tool to keep long-term interest rates low, even though that is not the stated... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The end of the US housing downturn 2012 may well be the year in which the five-year-long decline in US house prices ends. But that doesn’t mean it will also be the year in which prices start to rise consistently. Tough credit... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The boost to the narrow money supply from QE2 is yet to feed through into a more meaningful pickup in the broader monetary aggregates. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Dec.) December’s PMI data show that the UAE’s non-oil private sector continued to slow on the back of weaker external demand. Moreover, the data highlight the UAE’s vulnerability to conditions in the global... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data add to evidence that the ongoing austerity programmes in Southern Europe have failed to narrow these economies’ budget deficits as quickly as expected. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Resilience in the Mexican economy unlikely to last The latest survey data suggest that the Mexican economy ended 2011 in decent shape. But while the economy may have expanded by about 4.0% last year, we continue to think that this year will be much... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Property lending (Nov.) & CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Dec.) Net lending flows to commercial property rebounded in November but, given the sluggish economy and rising tensions in financial markets, a sustained improvement in the lending environment seems... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The latest mortgage lending figures confirm that housing market activity remains subdued. That is unlikely to change while rising unemployment and low consumer confidence depress the demand for... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
