Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian forint falls to record low, but IMF help looks elusive With the forint falling to a record low against the euro today, the news from Hungary goes from bad to worse, coming on the back of the breakdown in negotiations with the IMF and EU last month, a... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final PMI (Dec.) The latest euro-zone inflation and PMI business activity data do nothing to alter our view that the euro-zone is set for another very tough year in 2012. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US election year unlikely to provide a big boost to equities 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US manufacturing continues to shrug off euro-zone woes Manufacturing surveys for December suggest the US economy continued to resist the slowdown in Europe right up to the end of 2011. Although US growth is likely to slow this year, we expect this... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) UK gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month, despite growing fiscal fears and the limited boost to gilt prices provided so far by the Monetary Policy Committee’s further round of asset... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Momentum unlikely to be maintained throughout 2012 Our econometric model suggests that the labour market ended 2011 on a high note, with non-farm payrolls rising by around 150,000 in December. That would be a marked turnaround from the stagnation in... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the core/periphery yield spread peaked? The spread between property yields in core and peripheral euro-zone markets has risen fivefold over the past four years. But with the risks both to occupier markets and to the survival of the euro... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Dec.) December’s PMI data show that growth eased in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector on the back of softer domestic demand. Meanwhile, businesses continue to face squeezed profit margins in spite of... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Recent monetary data have revealed that money and credit growth remain very subdued. The ECB’s latest efforts to improve commercial banks’ liquidity seem unlikely to have a meaningful impact on... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Another GBP18bn of fiscal tightening due in 2012 France is spearheading a drive to push ahead with a “Tobin tax” on financial transactions in Europe, even though the UK has ruled out taking part. If a comprehensive tax were introduced, the potential... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Dec.) The improvement in December’s UK CIPS/Markit manufacturing survey got the data flow at the beginning of 2012 off to a relatively good start, but hardly suggested that the industrial recovery is back... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens further, adding to recession risk Over the past week, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) has used above-target and rising inflation to justify further measures to tighten monetary policy. However, we think the threat of a disorderly... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation poised to fall back in 2012 Consumer price inflation reached almost 3% in 2011, its highest rate in several years, with higher energy and food prices the main culprits. As a result of that pick up in inflation, the increase in... 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to watch in 2012 Just how US banks cope with the euro-zone crisis, which we believe will involve the departure of at least one nation from the currency union next year, could make or break the US economy in 2012. 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How bad is the outlook for Indian growth? India’s economy has slowed abruptly in the past few months and now faces a downturn comparable to that of 2008-09. However, a big difference is that the authorities now have much less scope for policy... 26th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP By Industry (Oct.)11 October's slightly disappointing GDP, which was largely unchanged from the month before, was not too surprising. Temporary shutdowns and maintenance work dampened output in the energy sector. Apart... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
