Europe Economics Update Merkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up risk Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food prices drive Mexican inflation higher While Mexican inflation has risen in recent months, the increase appears to have been due to higher food prices and not the sharp depreciation of the peso. With the economy set to slow this year, and... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property investors shun France in 2012? Bond investors’ growing preference for German over French sovereign debt is unlikely to be mirrored fully by commercial property investors in 2012. Valuations as well as economic fundamentals suggest... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US stock market at risk from the earnings cycle The fourth quarter US corporate earnings season kicks off today. The reporting season is unlikely to be especially upbeat as the profits cycle is now peaking. Looking ahead, the growth rate of profits... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil-importers will have no room for fiscal manoeuvre in 2012 The increase in the costs of food and fuel subsidies, and public sector salaries, has left most oil-importers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with no room to counteract the impact of a... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) The acceleration in the rate at which house prices were falling at the tail end of last year will provide more support to those Fed officials who recently have championed more action to revive the... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little good news for industry over the New Year A raft of data released over the past week paints a mixed picture for the Emerging Europe’s industrial sector. But even though production held up relatively well in the last months of 2011, weak... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Survey points to sharp slowdown in Central London office rents The results of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey suggest that, over the next six to nine months, Central London office rental value growth will slow pretty sharply from its current rate of... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC just biding time until next month The MPC looks unlikely to do anything more while the asset purchases which began in October are still underway, especially given the recent slight improvement in the economic data. However, we doubt... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador feels the squeeze from lower oil prices Ecuador’s oil-dependent economy showed clear signs of slowing in Q3 2011 as crude prices fell. A sizeable current account deficit and limited external financing options make the dollarised economy... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s fall in German industrial production confirmed that the recovery in what had been the strongest sector of the euro-zone’s strongest economy has gone into reverse. 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How should we think about the leadership transition? 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Large external surpluses are now history Japan's current account surplus is on a declining trend, with the merchandise trade balance already in annual deficit. These developments will add to concerns over Japan's ability to finance its huge... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in Asia - what they mean for the region A number of important elections and leadership changes are due to take place across emerging Asia over the next 12 months. The outcomes will have implications for economic policymaking and growth... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market rally does not alter Canada's outlook Last week's market rally in commodity prices, which was already flagging before the week ended, does nothing to alter our view on Canada's economic outlook. After growing by an estimated 2.4% in 2011... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed taking further steps into policy unknown In addition to forecasting interest rates for the first time, by the end of this month the Fed may have adopted numerical targets for both inflation and the unemployment rate and perhaps even launched... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
