Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs support case for policy loosening Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) released today for India, Korea, Taiwan and Australia confirm that manufacturing in these countries is weak. With fears for growth rising and inflation trending... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Financing risk, not Islamist win, is the greatest threat in Egypt Although the official results from Egypt’s first round of elections have not yet been released, it is almost certain that the Freedom and Justice party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood)... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing divergence between US and euro-zone manufacturing November’s purchasing managers’ surveys suggest the euro-zone is sinking into an even deeper recession even while the US manufacturing sector has strengthened. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) Shrugging off the apparent sharp slowdown in growth in Asia and what looks like a renewed recession in Europe, the ISM manufacturing index rebounded to a five-month high of 52.7 in November, from 50.8... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FSR highlights growing risk of credit crunch The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) suggests that a second credit crunch might already be starting to hit the UK. A renewed tightening of credit conditions is just one reason to... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) Even after a run of disappointing data, today’s PMIs were worse than most expected. It will be a while before policy easing helps the economy to turn the corner. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Clouds form over the Swedish retail market Q3’s plunge in Swedish consumer spending suggests that the outlook for the retail property market has deteriorated. Nevertheless, the low retail vacancy rate in Stockholm, together with strong demand... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates heading for single digits The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) cut interest rates by 50bps to 11.0% last night. The ongoing global turmoil, and subsequent negative impact on Brazilian growth, means that further rate cuts are... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing added to the growing mass of evidence suggesting that the UK economy is heading back into recession. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing sliding into recession November’s manufacturing PMI data brought further evidence – if any was needed – that the more open economies in Emerging Europe are following their Western European neighbours into recession. Even... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another rate cut, but no silver bullet The European Central Bank will respond to the growing evidence that the euro-zone economy is heading back into recession by cutting interest rates to 1% at its December 8th meeting. What’s more... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3) Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirmed that the economy is finally beginning to suffer from the franc’s strength. With the currency remaining strong and demand from the eurozone set to slump, the economy... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Enhanced central bank liquidity support is not a game changer 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3 11) Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirmed that the economy is finally beginning to suffer from the franc’s strength. With the currency remaining strong and demand from the eurozone set to slump, the economy... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets underestimate euro-zone threat Despite further large falls in gilt yields and little overall change in equity prices over the last quarter, we doubt that markets have fully appreciated the likely impact of the euro-zone debt crisis... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
