Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada's next move will be to cut policy rate Although the economy most likely rebounded in third quarter, by an estimated 2.9% annualised, it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. The... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rate hike fails to impress the currency markets If this afternoon’s 50bps hike in Hungarian interest rates was intended to shore up the forint, the move has flopped. But in truth it was always likely that a far larger increase would be needed to... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Labour market fragile, but not deteriorating Japan’s labour market is weaker than at the start of the year but the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in October makes conditions look worse than they are. The economy is not shedding jobs, but... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer surveys support the message from other timely indicators that the euro-zone is entering a deep recession. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) & Mortgage Lending (Oct.) The Nationwide house price index remains surprisingly resilient in the face of falling confidence and weak mortgage demand. But with the labour market now deteriorating rapidly, the balance of risks... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.) Net lending flows to commercial property in October, of minus £1.3bn, were the worst since September last year. Given lenders’ focus on reducing property exposure, net lending flows are set to remain... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q3) Q3’s GDP figures revealed that, for now at least, the Swedish economy continues to expand rapidly. Nonetheless, we expect the deepening euro-zone debt crisis to hit Sweden before too long, prompting... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q3 11) Q3’s GDP figures revealed that, for now at least, the Swedish economy continues to expand rapidly. Nonetheless, we expect the deepening euro-zone debt crisis to hit Sweden before too long, prompting... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar price to drop another 20% in 2012 Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter, has revised down its sugar production estimate for 2011/12 due to bad weather. However, ample global stockpiles and improved harvests in other... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Peru as economy outperforms Data released today confirmed that Peru was among the region’s star performers in Q3 and is on track to expand by 7.0% this year. Nonetheless, with the outlook for the global economy deteriorating... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political tensions in Kuwait could accelerate reforms On the face of it, the resignation of the Kuwaiti government adds to the general sense that political risks in the Arab world are escalating once again. However, given that Kuwait is much wealthier... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) The 1.3% m/m rise in new home sales in October was not especially encouraging given that it came at the expense of a 3.3% downward revision to the previous month’s numbers. More generally, new home... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Better placed, but not immune The past month has brought further signs that growth in Latin America has started to slow in response to the deepening crisis in the euro-zone, the turmoil in world markets and weaker demand from... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the euro-zone break up? The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak Philippines’ growth opens the door to rate cuts The Philippines reported weak Q3 GDP data today on the back of a slump in exports. Growth is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The poor state of the economy means the central bank is... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
