UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Oct.) Today’s data from the Land Registry show that house prices in London fell for the second consecutive month. While those falls could yet be reversed, the drop in London prices seems consistent with the... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest monetary data have revealed rising strains in the banking sector as the euro-zone’s debt crisis has deepened. While the ECB has continued to provide banks with liquidity, it has stopped... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still likely to fall next year The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) bucked the regional trend and raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.75% on Friday night. Nonetheless, with inflation now likely to have peaked, we suspect that this... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth slowing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth has slowed significantly. 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A warning shot over public finances Recent events in advanced economies have underscored just how quickly market sentiment towards sovereigns with unsustainable finances can shift. Last week two warning shots were fired across the bow... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would US banks survive a euro collapse The mounting fiscal crisis in the euro-zone obviously represents the biggest downside to our forecast that the US economy will continue to expand next year, albeit by a pretty modest 1.5%. In a worst... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How well will domestic demand hold up? Hopes that Asia had de-coupled from the rest of the world were dashed during the 2008-09 global crisis, as domestic demand fell almost as sharply as exports. However, there are good reasons to expect... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up worries finally hitting the euro Last week’s rise in German bund yields might have reflected expectations that Germany has finally accepted the need to shoulder more of the peripheral economies’ fiscal risk. After all, German... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Credit easing an important step, but no quick fix Credit easing marks an important step forward in the Government’s efforts to tackle the lack of bank lending. But it is unlikely to transform the near-term outlook for corporate lending. 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q4) Respondents to the IPF Consensus Forecasts no longer expect all-property capital values to hold up next year and have pencilled in renewed falls of about 2%, driven solely by higher yields. Reflecting... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates on hold despite growing squeeze on banks This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged was expected, but the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers are becoming increasingly... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is emerging Asia experiencing a property price bubble? Although Asia as a whole is not experiencing a property price bubble, we believe that prices in Hong Kong and Taipei are now in bubble territory. There is a growing risk of a sharp correction in these... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q3) and payroll employment (Sep.) Further growth in non-financial business profits is one good reason to expect continued growth in business investment and perhaps payroll employment. That said, the uncertainty surrounding what impact... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
