Commodities Update Chinese slowdown adds to global concerns China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI for November fell back markedly, to well below 50, raising fears of a hard landing in the largest commodity consumer. We still believe that a hard landing in China... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indian rupee? The fall in the rupee is mainly a result of global factors and is likely to be reversed when global sentiment improves. However, with the euro crisis set to drag on, that may be several months away. 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tightening here to stay The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark policy rate on hold today as expected, but the crucial point is that interest rates have already been hiked, albeit via the backdoor. Tighter... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The unexpectedly sharp drop in China’s flash PMI for November, if corroborated by other indicators, is likely to push policymakers to go beyond policy “fine-tuning” to outright easing. Today’s... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Oct.) October’s rise in mortgage approvals reversed a large part of last month’s fall. But with the impact of the substantial deterioration in the labour market yet to have fed through fully to housing... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting supported last week’s dovish Inflation Report in suggesting that a further extension to the quantitative easing (QE) programme is not far off. More QE in February... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s flash PMI surveys provided further support for our view that the damaging effects of the euro-zone’s ongoing debt crisis are likely to push the region’s economy back into a deep and... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Reform agenda must keep up with commodity boom In a recent visit to the UK, the President of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, underlined his ambitious plans for the expansion of his country’s burgeoning commodities sector. But while that may support... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Q3 GDP surprises on the upside, but still likely to slow Today’s better-than-expected Mexican GDP data present upside risks to our growth forecasts and mean that the economy may now expand by 4.0% this year. Even so, with the outlook for the global economy... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Euro crisis starts to bite Despite the deepening crisis in the euro-zone, data released over the past month showed that growth accelerated in a number of countries in Emerging Europe in the third quarter of this year. Yet while... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Activity weak and business sentiment fragile GDP growth turned positive in Q3 but monthly data show the economy had stopped and gone into reverse by the end of the quarter. The first flush of data for October shows that conditions have remained... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call the end of the bull market in gold The recent weakness of the gold price largely reflects the return of a degree of confidence in the US dollar, which has more than offset persistent worries about the sovereign debt crisis in the euro... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are euro bonds the answer? Jointly issued euro-zone bonds might represent the move into full-blown fiscal union that could be needed to preserve the single currency area in the long run. But opposition from Germany suggests... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's jump in retail sales is further evidence that most households were undaunted by financial market volatility and declines in equity prices last quarter. Despite the drop in consumer... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Chancellor’s hands are tied The ailing economy desperately needs more support and yet the Chancellor is more hemmed in than ever by the fiscal position. With no money to spend, Mr Osborne will instead use the Autumn Statement to... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
