Pick-up in Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained

Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the external sector is unlikely to be repeated in the coming quarters. Business and housing investment, however, should help to buffer domestic demand growth this quarter and next, while personal consumption grows more in line with moderate real income growth. We forecast GDP growth of 2.0% annualised this quarter, before slower growth of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2012.