China Data Response Foreign Trade (Oct.) Demand for China’s exports is much weaker than today’s headline growth figures suggest. We expect a sharp slowdown in export growth in November. But imports are growing strongly, implying that... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q3) The buy-to-let sector increased its share of total mortgage advances again in the third quarter. While that is a trend that probably has further to run, we don’t think that lending to the sector can... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch What next for the Asset Purchase Program? The Bank of Japan is unlikely to make any changes to its policy stance at its November meeting next week. The two main policy options available are a further increase in the size of the Bank’s Asset... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Why we differ from the consensus outlook We have below-consensus forecasts for Canadian interest rates and economic growth next year. The main reasons for the difference relates to our bearish views on rest-of-world economic growth... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s current pace of growth is unsustainable Ecuador’s rapid pace of recent growth has been built on rising prices in global oil markets. With energy prices more likely to fall back than rise over the next 6-12 months, we expect the economy to... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What can Czech policymakers do to stimulate growth? With the Czech economy already slowing on the back of weaker growth in its key export markets, the case for policy stimulus is mounting. In the first instance, we expect a 25bp interest rate cut... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB come to Italy’s rescue? With Italian bond yields rocketing and European governments struggling to agree on a plan to raise finance, some have pinned their hopes on the ECB as possible lender of the last resort. While the... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Concerns about Mexican inflation fading, rate cuts on the way Three months after the sell-off of the peso began, there are still few signs that the weaker currency has passed through to higher inflation. Indeed, we continue to expect inflation to remain close to... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy moves closer to the brink Recent developments in Italy, coupled with its deteriorating growth prospects and huge structural economic problems, support our view that the Italian government will eventually default. The huge... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is gold a currency? The question of whether gold should be regarded as a “currency” might seem academic, but a discussion of the possible answers may shed some light on how best to analyse and forecast its price. Our... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Price falls starting to gather pace again The latest evidence suggests that the stabilisation in house prices seen over the summer is giving way to further price falls. In September, our seasonally adjusted measure of the CoreLogic index fell... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation tumbles Inflation fell sharply in October and further falls are likely in coming months. With downside risks to economic growth high and rising, today’s data bolster our confidence that China’s policy is set... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK recession risks weigh on markets While the twists and turns of the euro-zone debt crisis have continued to have a key bearing on UK market movements, markets also appear to be concerned that the UK economy is on the brink of... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update An improvement in October but recovery still fragile Recent survey based evidence, including today’s Economy Watchers’ Survey, has indicated a pick-up in activity in October following three consecutive months of decline. However, a continued recovery is... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) September’s trade figures suggested that the UK is already suffering the adverse effects of the euro-zone crisis. And the worst is yet to come for exporters. 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
