Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s falls in German industrial production and euro-zone retail sales confirm that an underlying economic downturn is accompanying the region’s debt crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower commodity prices rescue the world economy? We are forecasting some pretty substantial falls in commodity prices over the next few years, which should provide some support for global growth. However, the experience of 2008 and 2009 shows that... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) The latest rise in house prices in October adds to the evidence that a lack of properties for sale is supporting prices. However, if the recent signs of a fresh downturn in the labour market are... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation probably fell sharply in October and we expect a further steep fall in November. Credit policy is likely to be loosened in coming weeks. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where and why we differ from the consensus We have below-consensus forecasts for interest rates and GDP growth in emerging Asia next year. The main reason for the difference relates to our views on growth in the developed world and commodity... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Assessing the fallout from Thailand's flood disaster Thailand’s flood situation deteriorated in early November, with water breaking through defences and flowing further into Bangkok and its surrounding provinces. Agriculture, manufacturing and tourism... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The success (or otherwise) of yen intervention The intervention by the Japanese authorities last Monday has succeeded in weakening the yen and reducing exchange rate volatility, for now at least. The Ministry of Finance has a long history of... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly From stagnation to contraction At first glance, last week’s activity data painted a mixed picture on the recent health of the UK’s economic recovery. However, a closer inspection suggests that the economy is heading back into... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Papandreou shatters the illusion Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s extraordinary manoeuvrings last week forced euro-zone leaders to acknowledge openly for the first time that a country could leave the euro-zone. Indeed... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Narrowing in the trade deficit probably temporary The employment figures took a lot of the gloss off the news earlier in the week that monthly GDP growth accelerated back in August. It is clear that even if energy and autos production were enjoying a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the Fed help revive housing? The Fed appears increasingly more determined to help the ailing housing market. Another round of asset purchases focusing on mortgage-backed securities, perhaps in the first half of next year, would... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Kicking the Cannes down the road As expected, the G20 summit concluded today without agreeing anything of substance. Euro-zone leaders were effectively told to get their own house in order, something they have conspicuously failed to... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Kicking the Cannes down the road As expected, the G20 summit concluded today without agreeing anything of substance. Euro-zone leaders were effectively told to get their own house in order, something they have conspicuously failed to... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's Employment Report has pluses and minuses but, on balance, it is positive. Non-farm payrolls increased by a modest 80,000 last month, down from a revised 158,000 gain in September. 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
