Capital Daily Stock market implications of labour’s plunging share of income 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Labour's share of income and the outlook for US equities Labour’s share of income in the US nonfarm business sector hit its lowest level since at least 1947 in Q3 according to data released last Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (See Chart 1... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shadow inventory to keep supply high for foreseeable future Estimates of the shadow inventory vary, but by our calculations more than four million homes are waiting in the wings and will eventually add to the supply of properties for sale. That will prevent a... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Euro-zone heading back into recession The euro-zone economy will lapse back into recession next year as the impact of the fiscal crisis and weaker global growth take their toll. The prospects for economic growth are typically a little... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia-US trade agreement could ease Dutch Disease News that the Free Trade Agreement between Colombia and the US has finally been signed is clearly positive. Not only should the pact boost trade between the two nations, but the elimination of tariffs... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: living on borrowed time We estimate that the Central Bank of Egypt has sufficient FX reserves to maintain its current rate of intervention in the foreign exchange markets until early next year. Assuming this month’s... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Signs of a widespread recession The latest data have revealed that the economic downturn is deepening and spreading. October’s drop in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to sharp quarterly falls in GDP of around 1.0%... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Production (Sep.) & BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) September’s industrial production figures were weaker than the estimates contained in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP. The industrial sector seems to be teetering on the brink of recession. 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Oct) The latest RICS Housing Market Survey pointed to a marginal improvement in some activity measures this month. But there was nothing in the survey to suggest that the gradual decline in house prices... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks batten down the European hatches The Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey shows that in the three months to October banks took steps to protect themselves from the European debt crisis. Nevertheless, the survey is still consistent with a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF impasse pushes Ukraine closer to the edge News that an IMF mission left Kiev late on Friday without approving the resumption of Ukraine’s $15bn programme has pushed the country a step closer to an external funding crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to pause this month, but more QE ahead After voting to expand its quantitative easing (QE) programme last month, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) looks likely to pause for breath at this week’s policy meeting. Nonetheless, with the... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update IPD yields likely to drift higher in 2012 We do not think that the increase in average property yields of around 80bps that has been recorded on the transactions-based Property Archive data over the past nine months will be mirrored fully by... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The acceleration in the rate at which the CoreLogic house price index is falling reflects the slowing in the pace of job creation and wider economic growth earlier this year. Prices may well fall... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia's economy to outperform Indonesia’s economy continued to grow strongly in the third quarter amid buoyant domestic demand and booming exports. Although global demand looks unlikely to remain so supportive for long, Indonesia... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
