Signs of a widespread recession

The latest data have revealed that the economic downturn is deepening and spreading. October’s drop in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to sharp quarterly falls in GDP of around 1.0%, suggesting that new ECB President Mario Draghi’s warnings of a “mild recession” might be wishful thinking. The German PMI is now only just above the no-change level of 50 and most other economies’ are firmly in recession territory. Given this and the ongoing debt crisis, the euro exchange rate has been surprisingly resilient.