Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia's election results should not worry investors The fact that the moderate Islamic party, Al-Nahda, is on track to become the strongest political force in Tunisia should not be a concern for Western governments or international investors. From the... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India hikes rates for last time in the cycle While the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to hike its repo rate by a further 25bp today was widely expected, what is more surprising is how explicitly it signalled that this is likely to be the... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Balance of Payments & Economic Accounts (Q2) The Balance of Payments and Economic Accounts releases for the second quarter suggested that the economy is a bit better balanced than previously thought. Nonetheless, we doubt that these improvements... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep.) It is too early to tell whether the latest fall in the BBA mortgage approval numbers is the beginning of a renewed downward trend. However, against the gloomy economic outlook and difficult conditions... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response SME Business Confidence (Oct.) Confidence amongst Japan’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) dipped slightly in October. Sentiment had recovered rapidly from March’s disaster and although it is expected to rebound in... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe markets rally despite slide towards recession The rally in financial markets in Central Europe over the past few weeks is all the more notable since it has taken place against a backdrop of worsening economic data. We expect growth in Poland and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How vulnerable is Indonesia to a global financial crisis? In the event of a global financial crisis stemming from the sovereign debt problems in Europe, there will be major concerns over Indonesia’s exposure to volatile capital flows, its vulnerability to... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Households' and firms' borrowing remains depressed A lack of credit is not a constraint on the Japanese economy, a lack of demand is. According to the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey, loan demand from Japanese households and firms has not recovered... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outperformance by retail property income unlikely to last Despite the fragile economic backdrop and in contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail property landlords have recently enjoyed positive income growth. In our view, however, with consumer... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update End is in sight for the rally in Moscow property yields Recent declines in Moscow commercial property yields have been steeper than we had expected. Even so, there are now signs that investment demand is softening. If we are right that the economy will... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does a sovereign debt crisis always cause a financial crisis? While there are no direct historical parallels with the current situation in Europe, a review of past experience suggests policymakers may need to resolve the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fernández victory sets Argentina up for a hard landing Argentina’s incumbent president, Cristina Fernández, eased to victory in yesterday’s Presidential Election as was widely expected. We do not foresee any material changes to the government’s policy... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rebound in the flash manufacturing PMI estimate for October from HSBC/Markit supports our view that China’s economy has at least been stablising. However, production is unlikely to pick up... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No hard landing for China but demand outlook still poor The pick-up in China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI has eased concerns that the economy is about to crash land, but a period of relatively weak growth still lies ahead. What’s more, the latest euro... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
