Europe Economics Focus Can the euro survive the sovereign debt crisis? Policymakers’ latest plans to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis are unlikely to address the region’s fundamental problems and secure the future of the single currency. We still doubt that the euro will... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stable in Q3, but problems looming China’s Q3 data confirmed that growth was stable last quarter, but with both exports and real estate construction likely to slow, a more difficult period lies ahead. 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Czech retail property remain in vogue? Record levels of commercial property investment in the Czech Republic in Q3 2011 were driven by the retail sector. But retail property in the Czech Republic is starting to look expensive compared to... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Low demand constraining sales, not low supply Recent suggestions that home sales are being held back by a lack of inventory are misguided as the excess inventory may still amount to one million homes. Moreover, the "shadow inventory" may consist... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil The latest quarterly business survey responses indicate that the more uncertain global economic outlook is dampening business confidence, but only at the margin. While cautiously optimistic regarding... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US corporate earnings and the outlook for the stock market With the US third quarter profits season now underway, two common perceptions are that the growth rate of earnings will remain healthy, and that the value of the stock market in relation to earnings... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Despite signs of a slowdown in global economic growth and the fragile state of business confidence, manufacturing output is still expanding at a solid pace. 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro crisis to tip the UK back into recession The euro-zone debt crisis is likely to have severe adverse effects on the UK economy at a time when domestic contractionary forces are building. We now expect UK GDP growth to slow from about 0.8%... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Saudi Arabia’s inflation to a nine-month high in September will revive speculation that stimulus spending is leading to a build up in domestic price pressures. A closer look at the data... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the fall in China’s FX reserves? The fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month raises some potentially far-reaching questions about the nature of China’s currency intervention and whether it has been... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does Asia still have fiscal firepower? Governments in Malaysia and the Philippines have recently announced big increases in spending to support their economies. But in the event that the developed world slips back into recession, not every... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market now capitulating? Last week’s data suggested that conditions in the labour market are now deteriorating again at a rapid pace. Rather than being just a blip, we fear that this will mark the beginning of another... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What can we learn from consumer confidence? The consumer confidence survey is the only direct gauge of consumer sentiment in Japan. In this Weekly we take a close look the construction of the survey and find it is a good leading indicator of a... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Could housing investment growth re-accelerate? The recent surge in multi-unit housing starts indicates that new construction activity could boost overall residential investment growth for at least one or two more quarters, possibly even into early... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
