Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil-rich states well prepared to face the global crisis The drop in PMIs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE provide the first signs that the Gulf States are being hit by the on-going problems in the developed world. But the oil-rich countries have strong balance... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, but slowdown on the horizon The raft of activity data for September released earlier today allow us to firm up our forecast for Russian growth in the third quarter. The good news is that the economy appears to have expanded at a... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to cut next year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its one-day repo rate at 3.5% today, as expected. The BoT’s concerns are rightly shifting from tackling inflation to supporting growth. Most analysts predict that the... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy outlook depends more on external events We have absolutely no doubt that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. Were it not for the recent declines in long-term interest rates and depreciation of the Canadian... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The 15% m/m rise in housing starts in September comes hot on the heels of the rise in the NAHB homebuilders' index to a 17-month high in October and suggests that housing may finally be helping the... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growing risk of another recession We expect growth to be very low or negative in most advanced economies next year. The euro-zone is already heading for recession, and if its public debt and banking crisis is not contained, the rest... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September, which was more precisely only a 0.054% gain, should ease fears among the hawks at the Fed that underlying inflation is spiraling out... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Economic prospects even weaker; property prices set to fall in 2012 The economic outlook continues to deteriorate pretty rapidly and, reflecting downgrades to our macro forecasts, we have now cut our expectations for UK commercial property returns. Rather than... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Momentum fading amid fragile confidence Japanese GDP growth is almost certain to have turned positive in Q3, ending three consecutive quarters of contraction. However, the outlook is poor and momentum is fading. Consumer and business... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) The MPC’s unanimous vote for more QE in October and its growing concerns over the outlook for the economy suggest that further extensions of its bond purchase programme are likely next year. 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Prospects for inflation should prove favourable for UK gilts 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The rapid pace of money growth continued in September. To some extent the recent pick up reflects a jump in the precautionary demand for money, however, so it is not necessarily inflationary. 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s currencies still look overvalued Despite a sell-off over the past couple of months, various measures suggest that Latin America’s currencies – with the exception of the Mexican peso – are still stronger than fundamentals might... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will weaker currencies mean for inflation? Fears that the recent sell-off in Emerging Europe’s currencies might lead to a pick-up in inflation and put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates are overstated. Nevertheless, weaker... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Poor demand prospects mean prices have further to fall The sharp falls in commodity prices in the third quarter illustrate the importance of macroeconomic and financial market factors on the demand side, which once again have more than offset the... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How well founded is the rise in house prices in the South? Yesterday’s report by Rightmove illustrated the huge North/South divide in average asking prices. But the fact that this North/South split is notable by its absence from the transactions data suggests... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
