Solid Q3 for Russia, but slowdown on the horizon

The raft of activity data for September released earlier today allow us to firm up our forecast for Russian growth in the third quarter. The good news is that the economy appears to have expanded at a decent annual pace of 4.5%-5.0%. But forward looking indicators suggest that the economy will slow in Q4 and, given our forecast for further falls in the oil price, we expect growth to ease further to a belowconsensus 3% in 2012. The risks to the ruble and to Russian equities remain skewed to the downside.