Renewed yen strength to keep Japan’s stock market weak

Intervention by the Japanese authorities to weaken the yen has failed to prop up the country’s ailing stock market. Admittedly, the slide in equity prices has been due to renewed concerns about the eurozone rather than to doubts about the benefits of a cheaper currency to Japan’s exporters. But we think the yen will strengthen significantly against the dollar again soon. Accordingly, Japan’s stock market is likely to continue to underperform its US counterpart. We expect the Nikkei 225 to end next year at 8,200 from a little over 8,800 now. (We forecast the S&P 500 to end 2012 around 1,200.)